CBB Sharp Report: How the Pros Are Betting Virginia-Duke, Kansas-WVU, UNC-Miami
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Krzyzewski and R.J. Barrett
- Sharp action has hit today's college basketball slate on three games in particular.
- Sports Insights' data reveals how the pros are betting Virginia-Duke, along with two other games.
I’ve often preached the idea that sharp bettors don’t care about whether or not the games they’re betting are considered to be “high-profile.” Value is value, and just because a game is on national television doesn’t mean it necessarily has any.
Go ahead and throw all that wisdom out the window — at least for today.
Three of Saturday’s biggest matchups have drawn some considerable attention from wiseguys, including Virginia-Duke at 6 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look.
>> All odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
North Carolina @ Miami
12 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Miami (moved from +6 to +7)
Looking at the overall line movement in this game, it certainly wouldn’t be clear that Miami is the sharp side. Sharps tend to move lines toward the side they’re betting, so a move from +6 to +7 doesn’t scream wiseguy activity by any means.
That move doesn’t quite tell the whole story of how this line came to be, however.
With 74% of bettors backing the Tar Heels, the point spread took an early jump from +6 all the way to +7.5, and even +8 in some spots. That’s when sharps stepped in.
Miami also boasts an impressive bet vs. dollar split. Their 26% backing has generated half the money being wagered on the game, meaning they’re drawing the bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps.
Kansas @ West Virginia
2 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: West Virginia (moved from +6 to +4.5)
Of today’s heavily bet games, this one features the most lopsided betting percentages. West Virginia is drawing just 16% of bets against No. 7 Kansas.
Despite that, the Mountaineers have fallen from their opening number of +6 to +4.5.
Such a significant move on a side getting so few bets doesn’t really need confirmation of sharp action. Still, a Bet Signal at the opening number of +6 verifies the professional backing of the home dog.
The Mountaineers low support also fits them into a profitable Bet Labs system. In conference matchups between teams of the six power conferences, the side getting less than 25% of bets has gone 650-530-29 (55.1%) against the spread since 2005.
Virginia @ Duke
6 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Duke (moved from -2 to -3.5)
For just the second time this season, Duke is drawing less than 40% of bets in a game (Dec. 18 vs. Princeton). Undefeated Virginia has picked up 69% of bets in what could be the biggest matchup of the year.
While there was plenty of uncertainty as to where this line should open (opening numbers ranged from -1.5 to -4.5), just about every sportsbook had Duke at -2 or lower during the overnight hours.
Since then, the Blue Devils have moved to 3.5-point favorites despite their minority backing.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals were triggered on Duke Saturday morning, causing the most recent line move of -3 to -3.5.
And like Miami, Duke is showing off a strong bet vs. money discrepancy. The 31% of bets on the Devils have accounted for 49% of actual dollars, meaning Duke is attracting the bigger — and probably sharper — bettors.