CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Xavier-Villanova, 2 Other Friday Games
Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Xavier Musketeers Naji Marshall, Zach Hankins, Elias Harden and Paul Scruggs
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Friday night, headlined by Xavier-Villanova (8:30 p.m. ET).
- Pros are also getting down on Eastern Michigan-Buffalo and Ohio-Toledo (both at 7 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
Sharps went 1-2 with the their Thursday night plays. It’s been one step forward, one step back for the wiseguys as of late.
Dealing with ups and downs can be one of the most frustrating aspects of betting, but it’s all about staying even-keeled and grinding one day at a time.
After breaking down the short 7-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve pinpointed which games sharps are betting Friday night, with two starting at 7 p.m. and one at 8:30 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: Eastern Michigan (moved from +16 to +15)
On paper, this looks like a layup for the public.
Buffalo is 16-1, ranked 16th overall and at home against unranked Eastern Michigan (8-9). Sounds like a blowout, right?
This MAC showdown opened at Buffalo -16. Currently 79% of bets are laying the points, making the Bulls the most lopsided play of the night. However, despite the overwhelming public support, Buffalo’s line has fallen to -15.
EMU is getting only 21% of bets but 31% of dollars. The positive bet vs. dollar split and reverse line movement indicates sharp action on the road dog.
Ohio @ Toledo
7 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Sharp angle: Ohio (moved from +10 .5 to +8.5)
Another MAC conference matchup, another wiseguy play on the road dog.
Toledo (14-3) opened as a 10.5 point home favorite and is currently receiving 59% of bets. Nevertheless, the line has moved two full points toward Ohio (9-7).
What caused this reverse line movement? Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked a big steam move on Ohio +9.5. This overload of smart money dropped the line to Ohio +8.5.
The Bobcats are receiving only 41% of bets but 58% of dollars — further evidence of professional action in their favor.
Xavier @ Villanova
8:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Xavier (moved from +10.5 to +9.5)
Sharps have taken a clear side in this heavily bet Big East battle.
Villanova (13-4, ranked 22nd overall) opened as a 10.5-point home favorite against unranked Xavier (11-7).
Currently 60% of bets are taking Nova to cover the big number, but the line has moved toward Xavier. In situations like this, the public will often double down on Nova because they can now bet them at a better number. But seasoned wiseguys know this signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog.
Since 2005, unranked road conference dogs receiving 40% or less bets with at least a half-point of reverse line movement have covered 56% of the time and produced a 9.1% ROI.