Wake and Rake: Early Money Quietly Moving Georgia Southern-UL Lafayette Line

Wake and Rake: Early Money Quietly Moving Georgia Southern-UL Lafayette Line article feature image
Credit:

Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns head coach Bob Marlin

  • Georgia Southern opened as a 1-point road favorite against UL Lafayette on Wednesday night (8 p.m. ET).
  • At first glance, this game doesn't appear to be attracting much action considering the line remains where it opened.
  • But by using The Action Network's betting tools, we examine how steady money has forced oddsmakers to adjust this point spread.

The sports calendar has officially hit the lull between the end of the NFL season and March Madness. Unless you’re a big NASCAR fan and bettor — like yours truly — there isn’t much for casual bettors to get excited about until the start of the NCAA tournament.

However, that doesn’t mean winning bettors are simply sitting out until the tournament bracket is announced on Selection Sunday. With so many teams still grinding through their seasons, there are plenty of opportunities for bettors to find value, especially in smaller conferences that are tougher to handicap.

And for sportsbooks, there is less incentive to spend time and resources on making lines for small college basketball matchups because they attract so little action from the majority of bettors.

Looking at Tuesday’s slate of games, Georgia Southern-UL Lafayette (8 p.m. ET) is already seeing steady, one-sided action, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line.

Let’s follow the money.

Georgia Southern opened as a 1-point road favorite against UL Lafayette and is receiving the slight majority (57%) of betting tickets. However, 77% of money wagered is also backing the Eagles, suggesting that the bigger bets have fallen on the road favorites.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals agree, triggering two Reverse Line Moves and one Steam Move on Georgia Southern, highlighting three separate occasions in which smart money convinced oddsmakers to adjust this point spread.

So, if the majority of money, which includes bets from professionals, is hitting the Eagles, why is the line right where it opened at -1?

The key here is to not just look at opening and closing lines, and to instead dive into the line history for this game.

At some sportsbooks, this line ticked down to a pick’em and even UL Lafayette -1 after opening, and each time sharp money hit the market to grab Georgia Southern, resulting in a move back to -1.

It is highly unlikely that recreational bettors have any interest in wagering on this game, but pros have already jumped on Georgia Southern as a short road favorite.