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CBB Sharp Report: Wiseguys Betting Michigan State-Wisconsin, 2 Other Games

Feb 12, 2019 5:25 PM EST
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Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo talks to forward Xavier Tillman. Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three College Basketball games on Tuesday, headlined by Michigan State-Wisconsin (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Central Michigan-Bowling Green (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and Michigan-Penn State (8:30 p.m. ET on BTN).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys never enter a day saying, “I’m going to bet all spreads today,” or “I’m only hitting over/unders.” Instead, they let the board speak to them. Sharps do their homework, compare their internal numbers to the odds posted by the sportsbooks and then get down on games in which they’ve located a big discrepancy or edge.

After analyzing Tuesday’s 22-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors, with games starting at 7 p.m. ET and 8:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Michigan State @ Wisconsin

7 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 130.5 to 134.5)

In the most heavily bet game of the night, sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) are on completely different sides of this marquee Big Ten showdown.

Michigan State are Wisconsin are known for their stifling defenses, with the Spartans allowing only 67 ppg and the Badgers allowing just 61 ppg. As a result, Average Joes see an easy under.

This total opened at 130.5. Currently 71% of bets are taking the under, yet the line has risen to 134.5. Why would the oddsmakers jack up the total to make it easier for public bettors to cash their under?

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over. Wiseguys hammered the Over 130.5 once, Over 131 twice and then came back a fourth time on the Over 131.5.

This influx of big money from respected players forced the oddsmakers to adjust the total all the way up to 134.5. We haven’t seen a single conflicting Under move (or buyback).

Central Michigan @ Bowling Green

7 p.m. ET | ESPN+

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
127
-6
129
-7
132.5
-6.5
131.5
-4.5
-17
156
-16.5
157
122
-19.5
123.5
-18.5
-6
131.5
-6
131.5
125.5
-6.5
129.5
-7
148
-14.5
146.5
-14
129
-2.5
130.5
-2.5
139
-13
139
-12.5
-6
131
-6
132.5
159
-17
159.5
-17
-8.5
154
-8
154.5
-4
149
-3.5
149
146
-2
145
-3.5
-16
148.5
-16.5
149
-21
140.5
-21
142.5

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