College Basketball Sharp Report: Pros Betting Arkansas-Texas, Two Other Games
Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Texas Longhorns head coach Shaka Smart
- Professionals are betting three college basketball games on Friday night, headlined by Arkansas-Texas (7 p.m. ET).
- Wiseguys are also getting down on Southern Illinois-Kentucky (7 p.m. ET) and NC Greensboro-LSU (8 p.m. ET).
College Basketball is officially underway! Hallelujah!
Just like football (and NBA), college basketball is a predominantly spread and over/under sport. This means bettors must win 52.38% of their plays (assuming standard -110 juice) in order to break even. Anything above that is pure profit.
After analyzing Friday’s massive 35-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three NCAAB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
>> All odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
Arkansas vs Texas
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 152.5 to 150)
One of the best kept secrets for college basketball wiseguys is neutral court unders. The unfamiliar surroundings, unknown courts, backboards, rims and “road” atmosphere for both teams disproportionately benefits unders.
Since 2005, the under has hit at a 53.6% rate on neutral courts. In non-neutral courts, the under has hit at a 49.9% rate, in comparison.
This game fits the neutral court under system. Also, sharps at CRIS, GTBets and 5Dimes all hammered the Under, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves that dropped the total from 152.5 to 150 since opening.
The under is getting 56% bets but 92% dollars– further indication of sharp wagers banking on a low-scoring game.
Southern Illinois at Kentucky
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 149 to 148.5)
Kentucky lost, 118-84, in its season opener against Duke. Public bettors love betting overs to begin with, but their recency bias tells them this Over is a lock.
The last Kentucky game ended with 202 total points. Why is this total only 149/148? Easy over, baby!
As always, if it looks too good to be true, it is. Oddsmakers set this total knowing the public would hammer the over.
In the most heavily bet game of the night, currently 66% of bets are going over, but 63% of dollars are going under. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy signals pure public over betting, with sharp money on the under.
Pros at the Greek hammered the Under 149. This caused the total to fall to 148.5. Bookmaker, one of the sharpest offshore books, is down to 148 — further evidence of under liability.
NC Greensboro at LSU
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: NC Greensboro (moved from +10.5 to +10)
Public bettors take one look at the team names and immediately make up their minds. LSU is a big-name school from the powerhouse SEC conference.
Little-known UNC Greensboro hails from the tiny Southern Conference. Plus LSU is at home. Tigers all day!
Not so fast, say the sharps.
This game opened at LSU -10.5. With the public pounding the Tigers (nearly 70% of bets), the line rose to LSU -11. That’s when sharps got down hard on NC Greensboro at an undervalued, inflated price.
Pros at CRIS and Orleans hammered UNCG +11, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. This overload of sharp action dropped UNCG down to +10.
UNCG is only receiving 34% of bets but 83% of dollars, another sign of smart money grabbing the points with the road dog.