CBB Sharp Report: 2 Monday Games Attracting Professional Action
Florida State Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
- Professional bettors are targeting two college basketball games on Monday night: SE Missouri State-Florida State (7 p.m. ET on ESPN3) and Pepperdine-Oregon State (10 p.m. ET on Pac-12 Network).
- Using the tools at The Action Network, we analyze how wiseguys are betting both games.
However, sharps aren’t ignoring college hoops. Wiseguys see value in an underrated 9-game board.
After consulting the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified two games that pros are betting on Monday night: SE Missouri State-Florida State (7 p.m. ET) and Pepperdine-Oregon State (10 p.m. ET).
>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
SE Missouri State at Florida State
7 p.m. ET on ESPN3
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 145.5 to 146.5)
Recreational bettors (who bet for fun) are typically biased toward Overs. After all, no one wants to root for blocks, bricks and shot-clock violations.
If an Average Joe is going to put his hard-earned cash on the line, he wants to watch an action-packed, high-scoring game and cash in the end.
However, once in a while the public will load up on an Under, creating a rare opportunity for sharps to bet a contrarian over. That’s what we’re seeing in this game.
The total opened at 145.5. Currently 67% of bets are taking the Under — yet the total has risen to 146.5.
Why would the oddsmakers raise the total to make it easier for public under backers to cash? Because they got hit with smart money, creating big liability.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed two steam and reverse line moves at Over 145.5 and Over 146.
Pepperdine at Oregon State
10 p.m. ET on PAC-12 Network
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 150 to 155.5)
A common Average Joe mistake is betting an over/under solely based on how high or how low it is. If it’s high, bet the under, if it’s low, bet the over.
This total opened at a “high” 150. The public says it has to go under, but sharps disagree.
Currently, 69% of bets are going Under, but nearly 55% of dollars are going Over. After opening at 150, the total has risen to 155.5. In a vacuum, a total should fall, not rise, when it’s receiving such heavy under betting.
Why has the total skyrocketed? Because sharps have been pounding the over all day.
We’ve noticed five separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over. This overload of sharp action created big liability for the books, forcing them to adjust the total despite the public hammering the under.