CBB Sharp Report: 2-Game Slate Attracting Heavy Professional Action
Morehead State Eagles guard Jordan Walker. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
- Professional bettors are targeting two college basketball games on Thursday night: Morehead State-Samford (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Eastern Washington-San Francisco (10 p.m. ET on TheW.tv).
- Using the tools at The Action Network, we analyze how wiseguys are betting both games.
Wiseguys went 2-1 with their Wednesday plays, cashing the Columbia spread and the LSU-Houston Over. Tonight we have a small slate with only two college hoops games on tap.
But sharps aren’t taking the night off and have found value in both matchups.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Morehead State at Samford
7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Sharp angle: Morehead State (moved from +8.5 to +6.5)
This is the favorite spread bet of the night for wiseguys.
Recreational bettors see 3-6 Morehead State on the road against 8-2 Samford and that’s all they need to know. Pound the home favorite with the better record. See you at the window. On to the next.
But sharps aren’t taking the bait.
Samford opened as an 8.5-point favorite. Despite 70% of bets laying the points, Samford has fallen from -8.5 to -6.5. Some books are even down to -6.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public Samford bettors an easier shot at covering?
Because wiseguys have been getting down on the road dog, creating big liability that forced the books to adjust the line in Morehead’s favor.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on Morehead at +9.5, +9 and +7.
Morehead is only getting 30% of bets but 62% of dollars — further indication of smart money in its favor.
Eastern Washington at San Francisco
10 p.m. ET on TheW.tv
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 139.5 to 143.5)
Average Joes are typically biased toward betting overs. After all, it’s fun to watch and root for a high-scoring, action-packed game.
Sportsbooks know this and will shade lines accordingly, forcing public over bettors to take bad numbers. As a result, wiseguys gravitate toward unders, knowing they have a built-in edge from the start.
However, tonight recreational bettors don’t know which way to go with the total, giving sharps a rare opportunity to bet a “contrarian” over.
The total opened at 139.5. Over/Under bets are split right down the middle 50/50. In a vacuum, even betting shouldn’t move a total at all. However, we’ve seen this line rise all the way to 143.5.
What caused this massive movement?
Goodfellas have been steaming the Over all day, forcing oddsmakers to jack up the line. Sharps hit the Over 140, Over 142, Over 143 and Over 143.5.
Best of all, we haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Under.