Colorado State vs. San Diego State Betting System Pick: Over/Under Value With Strong Shooting Teams
Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Brian Dutcher of the San Diego State Aztecs
- Our betting data at Bet Labs reveals a pick on Colorado State vs. San Diego State on Tuesday (11 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network).
- The total has dropped from 140 to 138.5 throughout the day, and SDSU will enter as a 13.5-point favorite.
- Get our pick on San Diego State vs. Colorado State below.
No. 5 San Diego State hosts Colorado State in the nightcap on Tuesday (11 p.m. ET, CBSSN). The Aztecs and Rams are two of the most accurate teams in college basketball.
San Diego State is connecting on 47.1% of its attempts this season, which is 21st in the nation. Colorado State is right behind, making 46.9% of baskets.
Casual bettors are generally inclined to bet the over, and when two good shooting teams meet, the public is even more likely to wager that a shootout will occur. But the data suggests otherwise.
Historically, it has been profitable to bet the under when two good shooting teams meet. We define a good shooting team as one that is making at least 45% of its field goals. There are 87 out of 353 teams (24.6%) in Division 1 that make 45+% of shots.
In the past 10 years, when two good shooting teams take the court, the under has gone 1,788-1,446-40 (55%) according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $19,811 following this simple system.
This strategy works for a few reasons. Oddsmakers inflate totals for good shooting teams making it more likely that the under hits. Plus, as the season progresses there is a chance a team’s shooting percentage regresses if it is connecting on a high percentage of attempts.
We have a large sample size (over 3,000 games) and consistent results (profitable in nine of past 10 seasons) which gives us confidence that this trend isn’t a fluke.
Recreational gamblers might assume that the over is a smart bet because San Diego State and Colorado State can make it rain, but history suggests the under 140 is the better play tonight.