Duke-North Carolina Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Will the Blue Devils Shut Down UNC?
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Wendell Moore (0) and Tre Jones (3)
- Duke needed a miraculous comeback to beat North Carolina in the teams' first meeting this season. What is in store for the second matchup?
- The Blue Devils (-11) are a big favorite against their rivals. Is that line too generous after such a close first game?
- See the full betting breakdown below.
North Carolina vs. Duke Odds
- Spread: Duke -11.5
- Over/Under: 152.5
- Time: 6 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
One of the best rivalries in college sports continues tonight inatCameron Indoor, less than a month after one of the best college basketball games of the season resulted in Duke winning 98-96 in OT at the Dean Smith Center.
The Tar Heels has limped to a 13-17 record this season but enters on a three-game winning streak, while the Blue Devils are on a bit of a skid, going 2-3 in their last five.
Duke opened -9.5 at DraftKings and was immediately bet up to -11.5, but is that high enough? Let’s break it down.
The Tar Heels have had the worst season in Roy Williams’ tenure as coach, largely because they’ve been so bad on offense.
North Carolina ranks 305th in eFG%, 312th in 3P%, and 288th in 2P%. In the first matchup against Duke, the Tar Heels shot 57.8% from inside the arc, well above their average of 47.2%.
Much of the Blue Devils struggles this year have come on the road, as Duke ranks 10th in defensive efficiency at home, while on the road they rank just 45th.
Duke is too good of a team to allow this North Carolina team to shoot almost 60% from inside the arc this time around.
The Blue Devils boast a 116.1 adjusted offensive efficiency inside Cameron Indoor arena (ranked 10th in the country). Duke also has an eFG% and 2P% above 50%, while the Tar Heels are allowing a 49.2% eFG% and 48.4% inside the arc.
The Blue Devils offense will get plenty of good looks, but for Duke to dominate this game and cover the -11.5, they will need to shut down North Carolina on defense like they are capable of.
Armando Barcot (9.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG) did not play against Wake Forest on Tuesday and was limited in practice on Thursday. He is questionable for this game.
Even if Barcot plays, my model has this line as Duke -14.77, so I think there is plenty of value to bet Duke all the way up to -12.
My Pick: Duke -11.5