Florida State vs. Notre Dame Odds, Betting Pick (March 4): Sharps Find Value on Low Spread
Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: John Mooney
- Florida State is a 1.5-point betting favorite over Notre Dame in updated odds from FanDuel, with the total at 147.5.
- The public has been all over the Seminoles at this small price, but sharp action hit the spread earlier in the day on Wednesday.
- See how the pros are betting Florida State vs. Notre Dame below.
From a distance, tonight’s Florida State vs. Notre Dame point spread might seem a little off.
FSU has been arguably the best team in the ACC this season, sporting a No. 7 ranking — the highest of any team in the conference — and sitting just a half game back of Louisville in the conference standings. The Noles are 24-6 on the year and have gone 14-4 against their ACC foes.
Notre Dame has fluttered in the middle of the pack, holding onto the sixth-place spot in the conference at 9-9 and boasting an 18-11 overall mark. The Irish, however, have yet to beat a ranked team this season in five tries, and with just a 2.5-point opening spread, oddsmakers didn’t give much wiggle room between a cover and an outright win tonight.
So where are sharps finding the value?
Florida State vs. Notre Dame Sharp Betting Pick
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
With so much of the pregame narrative favoring Florida State, the public has been all over the Noles at the small price. Sixty-nine percent of bettors have landed on FSU since the line became available.
As of the late morning, though, the already short line has become even shorter, as Florida State is now just a 1.5-point favorite — which should hint at the side sharps are playing.
The 31% backing of Notre Dame has impressively generated 81% of actual money hitting the spread, meaning bigger bettors — those more likely to be sharps — are taking the points.
It’s not just the difference in bet and money percentage that’s illustrating sharp action, though. Sports Insights Bet Signals, which are triggered when the market moves in a way that would suggest sharp action (steam or reverse line movement), have confirmed three such cases of pro money hitting Notre Dame.
It is worth noting that all three came at the opener of +2.5, so it’s not completely clear whether sharps are still finding value at the current number.
Sharp angle: Notre Dame (moved from +2.5 to +1.5)