Friday College Basketball Odds & Betting Picks: Marist vs. Siena, Dayton vs. Davidson
Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kellan Grady
- Looking to crush Friday night's college basketball slate? Our CBB expert scoured the short 13-game slate to find picks with the most value.
- On the list of the games he's betting is No. 4 Dayton on the road against Davidson.
- Mike Randle shares his betting picks for these games below.
Friday night hoops brings us to Ohio, where the No. 4 Dayton Flyers put their undefeated Atlantic 10 record on the line against the Davidson Wildcats.
Then, we head to Marist where visiting Siena tries to win its sixth game in a row and remain in first place in the MAAC.
Will both these streaky teams cover? Let’s take a look at the matchups.
Friday College Basketball Odds & Picks
No. 4 Dayton vs. Davidson
- Spread: Dayton -11.5
- Over/Under: 141
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
Dayton (26-2) has dominated the A-10 all season and is a perfect 15-0 in conference play. The Flyers have won 17 consecutive games and are a perfect 15-0 at home. But they are just 14-14 against the spread and have failed to cover six of their past eight games.
Davidson (15-12) has finally started to play to its potential, having won four of its last five games. Their offense is operating at a season-best efficiency level as the Wildcats have scored 72 or more points in each game over that time. They are only 12-15 ATS but have covered three of the past five.
Davidson returned four starters from last year’s team but spent most of this season as one of the biggest disappointments in college basketball. Head coach Bob McKillop has his offense peaking at the exact right time.
The Wildcats rank first in conference play in 3P (37.3%) and free-throw shooting (76.4%). Overall, Davidson ranks right behind Dayton in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage against A-10 opponents.
The last four games between these two teams have been decided late or in overtime.
- February 24th, 2017: Dayton wins 89-82 at Davidson
- March 10th, 2017: Davidson upsets No. 1 Dayton 73-67 in A-10 quarterfinals
- January 23rd, 2018: Dayton wins 65-54 at home
- February 19th, 2019: Dayton wins 74-73 at Davidson
While still undefeated in conference play, the Flyers have struggled to put teams away. Dayton has covered just one time in their past four home games. The Flyers can be exposed on the boards, ranking 11th in conference play in both offensive and defensive rebounding efficiency. Davidson is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, ranking 41st overall and third in A-10 play.
Davidson has been playing at an elite level over the past two weeks, with the exception of its dismal second-half against St. Joseph’s.
I expect this rivalry game to again come down to a couple possessions, even against the fourth-ranked Flyers.
Pick: Davidson +11.5
Marist vs. Siena
- Spread: Siena -5.5
- Over/Under: 131
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN3
Marist (26-2) has stayed competitive all season despite only a 6-11 record in conference. The Red Foxes have lost four games by five points or less including two in overtime. They are just 13-13 against the spread but have covered four of their last six home games.
Siena (12-5) sits atop the MAAC at 12-5 with just a half-game lead over Saint Peter’s. The Saints have won six games in a row and nine of their last 10 games. They are just 12-14 ATS including just 2-6 in their last eight games away from Albany.
Marist has embraced the defensive mentality of second-year head coach John Dunne, who was previously at Saint Peter’s for 12 years. They rank second in the MAAC in effective field goal percentage and first in 3P% defense. Marist is also one of the few teams that can contain Siena’s offensive rebounding prowess as the Red Foxes rank 93th in the country in defensive rebounding efficiency.
This game will likely play out as a lower-scoring battle, as Marist will control pace as the 309th slowest team, per KenPom’s adjusted tempo. Two of their last three home games have failed to crest 126 total points, making the 5.5 points even more valuable.
With six players averaging eight points or more, Marist features a true balanced scoring attack that will pose difficulty for Siena’s 255th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency. The Saints’ 10th best defensive turnover percentage among conference teams will not cause many disruptions on offense for Marist.
In their first matchup, Marist limited Siena on their home court to just 21% (2 of 14) from 3P in a 70-57 loss. The Red Foxes shot only 27% (6 of 22) from 3P on offense, a percentage that will likely increase at home.
With a revenge spot on Siena’s mind against Niagara on Wednesday, I’ll grab the 5.5 points with Marist at home in a low-possession MAAC battle.
Pick: Marist +5.5