Indiana vs. Purdue Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions: Should You Bank on the Hoosiers Staying Hot?

Indiana vs. Purdue Odds

• Spread: Purdue -6 [In Indiana? Bet Now]
• Over/Under: 129.5
• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Thursday night, Indiana and Purdue will meet for the second time this season after the Boilermakers won big on the road three weeks ago.

Promo alert! Bet Indiana at crazy boosted odds to win (+320) vs. Purdue on Thursday night at FanDuel.

Line, Market Moves for Purdue-Indiana

Indiana has dropped from +7 to +6 and even +5.5 in some spots behind 67% of bets and 73% of money.

The total has also fallen from 131 to 129 despite more than 80% of bets and money hitting the over. We tracked sharp action via a Bet Signal at Sports Insights on under 131. — Steve Petrella

When Purdue Has the Ball

Despite the situational home spot against Michigan, the Boilermakers could not overcome a tenacious perimeter defense. Purdue shot just 4 of 16 from long distance and only made it to the free throw line for half as many attempts as the Wolverines.

The Boilermakers effective field goal percentage continues to decline in conference play, spiraling downward at 46.6%. Relief may come in the form of an Indiana, the last team Purdue beat (Feb. 8).

The Hoosiers rank 11th in Big Ten defensive effective field goal percentage. Indiana’s defense against the 3-pointer is also trending in the wrong direction through conference play, as well.

Look for Purdue to pull more boards than Indiana and have no issues in transition. Six different players scored 8 points or more in the initial victory over Indiana.

If the Boilermakers can avoid a Hoosier block party, this will be a welcome shooting opportunity after facing better defenses like Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. — Collin Wilson

When Indiana Has the Ball

The Hoosiers also took a recent loss to the Wolverines mostly due to poor outside shooting. The bigger reason for Indiana’s loss may have been trips to the charity stripe. Archie Miller’s team has won three of the past four, but made it to the free throw line just 12 times in a loss to Michigan.

Miller has yet to beat Purdue in six previous attempts as Indiana head coach.

In recent victories over Iowa, Minnesota and Penn State, the Hoosiers attempted more free throws than their opponent. Indiana’s highest point distribution comes from free throws, ranking 35th in the nation in point distribution.

Indiana ranks 336th in point distribution from beyond the arc, negating the importance of the Boilermakers perimeter defense and an increased focus on personal fouls.

The Boilermakers are mid-pack in Division I play with an opponent point distribution of 145th in the nation from the line. Purdue has exceeded its conference average of opponent free throw attempts during its four game losing streak.

Trayce Jackson-Davis is the most important piece on the floor for Indiana, as his work in the paint generated 16 points and 10 free throw attempts in a previous loss to Purdue. The more Indiana can draw personal foul, the more Purdue plays into what the Hoosiers do best. — Collin Wilson

Stuckey's Angles

Indiana has been shooting up my power ratings over the past few weeks and now looks like a virtual lock for the tourney. Not only have the Hoosiers been red hot of late, they have a home win over FSU and two neutral court wins over ND and UConn to boost their resume. That said, the fairly inexperienced Hoosiers only have two true road wins on the season: at Nebraska and at Minnesota.

Indiana will head into Mackey looking for revenge from a home loss against their in-state rivals earlier this season. Purdue comes into this game as the much more desperate team and has been headed in the opposite direction in my power ratings in recent weeks in the midst of a four-game skid.

It’s actually a pretty good matchup for Purdue as the Boilermakers can turn teams over and Indiana will cough up the ball. Both teams match up in terms of size.

That said, I make this line Purdue -4/4.5 after factoring in home court as I currently have both teams rated similarly. I do think Purdue finds a way to get it done at home but I can’t lay -6. There value is on IU, especially when you consider Purdue struggles from the free throw line (as do the Hoosiers).

If this line was still sitting at 7 this morning, I’d look at Indiana. At 6 or below, I may look to add Purdue to a ML parlay. — Stuckey

Our Bets

While this game represents a great situational spot for the Boilermakers, I’m on the Hoosiers at +7, though that number is gone.

Purdue is coming off four consecutive outright losses, setting up a major motivational edge in Mackey Arena. But with Indiana already falling to Matt Painter’s team on Feb. 8, expect Archie Miller’s unit to come out with a similar tenacity in a rivalry game.

Like Collin noted, as long as Indiana doesn’t get shot-happy from behind the arc in half-court sets, the Hoosiers should be able to push the tempo and get to the line. Indiana’s poor shot selection in the first meeting led to plenty of Boilermaker runouts, and they ended up shooting 8 of 16 on 3s.

Unless Purdue has one of those nights from the perimeter, Indiana is built to keep the final score within a couple possessions at least.

Moreover, the Hoosiers have manufactured the fourth-highest defensive rebounding rate in Big Ten play, which should help control the pace — even against a Purdue team (second-highest offensive rebounding rate in Big Ten play) that will be extra aggressive on the boards given the spot. — Eli Hershkovich

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