Kentucky-Tennessee Betting Guide: Can Wildcats Survive Without Reid Travis?

Kentucky at Tennessee Betting Odds

• Spread: Tennessee -2.5
• Over/Under: 142
• Time: 2 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

The SEC is very much up for grabs heading into the second-to-last weekend of the regular season. Tennessee, Kentucky and LSU are all tied at the top, and this weekend could pretty much settle the race.

Can the Vols avenge a 17-point loss at Kentucky two weeks ago? Let's dive in.

Market Moves

Tennessee opened at -2.5, with the total at 143.5. The line has stayed the same but the total has dropped 1.5 points since opening.

Betting is about split on this game as of Friday night. — Steve Petrella

Trends to Know

As an underdog in the John Calipari era, Kentucky has gone 10-17 straight up and 12-14-1 against the spread in the regular season. Against SEC opponents, the Wildcats have gone 4-10 SU and ATS when getting points — John Ewing

Be sure to track public betting percentages (which you can do here). Since 2005, in matchups of top-10 teams, the squad that receives a majority of spread tickets has gone 84-107-7 (44.0%) ATS in regular-season games. — Ewing

Heading into Saturday, Tennessee is the 15th-best scoring offense in the country according to points per game with an average of 83.2.

Under Calipari, Kentucky is 27-13-2 (67.5%) ATS when facing teams that are averaging at least 80 PPG, with the Wildcats covering by 3.9 an average of points per game. When the game is played in January or later, opponents haven't eclipsed 80 points since Jan. 30, 2016 against Kansas — a streak of 15 consecutive games in that spot. — Evan Abrams

When top-10 teams play a conference game after losing at least five consecutive games ATS, they're 24-6-2 (80%) ATS, covering by an average of 4.5 points per game. — Abrams

The Stakes

Kentucky and Tennessee (No. 5 and No. 7 in the NET Rankings, respectively) sit in a three-way tie with LSU for first place in the SEC. LSU does hold the tiebreaker, but with road games against Alabama and Florida coming up, the Tigers will likely lose one more game.

This game could decide who wins the SEC regular season and who gets a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

A home loss by the Vols in all likelihood takes them out of contention for both, while Kentucky would still have a more realistic (but not easy) path. — Stuckey

When Tennessee Has the Ball

While the Vols own the 15th-highest 2-point scoring rate (56.4%) in Division I, they were pushed around in their last meeting with the Wildcats, with PJ Washington and Reid Travis bruising Grant Williams (19.1  PPG) in the low-post.

Even without Travis (knee) this time around, the Wildcats still boast a sound interior defense, letting up the eighth-lowest 2-point clip (43.8%) in the country. Nevertheless, they’ve been susceptible around the perimeter, allowing the 46th-highest scoring rate (36.5%) from that vicinity.

Tennessee struggled to speed up the tempo with Kentucky feeding off a rowdy Rupp Arena, but it should have more opportunities to increase the pace via the SEC's fifth-highest defensive rebounding rate (30.5%). From there, Rick Barnes' unit will be able to work inside-out through Williams, generating the fifth-highest 3-point clip (36.2%) in league play, especially without Travis.

The Vols’ Admiral Schofield, Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden all had uncharacteristically poor nights in the last go-around, combining to shoot 1-of-17 from behind the arc.

Expect a vengeful performance from Tennessee’s attack.— Eli Hershkovich

When Kentucky Has the Ball

Kentucky’s offense has been incredibly efficient, especially during conference play. The Wildcats are second in adjusted offensive efficiency and excel at taking high-quality shots on every possession.

In the first matchup on Feb. 16, Kentucky shot 60% (24 of 40) from inside the arc, led by Washington’s 23 points on 8-of-10 shooting. With the 6-foot-8 Travis unavailable on Saturday, the Wildcats will need strong inside performances from freshman EJ Montgomery and sophomore Nick Richards. Travis accounted for 11 points, eight rebounds and two blocks in their 86-69 win over Tennessee at Rupp Arena.

Kentucky needs to exploit Tennessee’s lack of ability to defend the 3-pointer.

The Volunteers are allowing opponents to shoot 36.2% from deep, the second-worst rate in the SEC. Freshman guard Tyler Herro (14.2 PPG) is shooting 56% (10-of-18) from 3-point range over his past three games.

They also need to get the streaky Keldon Johnson (13.6 PPG) back on track. The 6-foot-6 freshman is shooting only 32% (9-of-28) from the field and hasn’t made a 3-pointer (0-for-5) in his past three games. — Mike Randle

Stuckey: Kentucky Will Miss Reid Travis Dearly

The loss of Travis cannot be understated in this particular matchup.

Travis has had a disappointing year from an offensive standpoint and the Cats don’t miss him against most teams in the SEC, but this is one matchup in which his physical presence really comes in handy, especially on the defensive end.

The main story of that first matchup was that Washington did whatever he wanted on the offensive end.

Part of that was he didn’t have to exert much energy on the defensive end and didn’t get in foul trouble. That’s because Travis, who finished with a solid but not spectacular 11 points and eight rebounds, did a masterful job defending Williams, who attempted just four shots all game.

Without Travis, Calipari might have to put Washington on Williams, which risks foul trouble and could potentially take away from his game on the offensive end.

There's also a trickle down effect on the defensive end. Either Williams or Schofield will have a plus-matchup they can exploit on the offensive end, which is something they didn’t have the first time around.

THE PICK: I think Tennessee gets this done at home, where they are a different animal. You will get an inspired effort after that embarrassing loss in Lexington.— Stuckey