Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Odds & Pick: Value on the Over/Under?
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Ashton Hagans
- The updated betting odds between Kentucky and Florida make the Gators 2.5-point favorites with the over/under down to 134.
- With the spread so tight in this game, is there value on betting on the total in this SEC matchup?
- Check out our breakdown the betting odds, including picks for Saturday's game.
Kentucky vs. Florida Odds
- Line: Florida -3
- Over/Under: 136.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
Coach John Calipari and Kentucky (24-6, 14-3) have won another regular season SEC title. The Wildcats are projected as a No. 3 seed in the tournament by most bracketologists, but a win today against Florida (19-11, 11-6) could put them on a fast track to a No. 2 seed.
I don’t have a strong opinion on the spread here. Both teams have their betting angles. However, I do think the total is very intriguing.
Florida is a slow team. With an adjusted tempo rate of 65.3 (316th in the country), the Gators are at their best when teams play down to their pace.
Florida has tried to employ a strategy that highlights this style of play. Opponents are averaging 18.4 seconds per offensive possession (331st in the country) against coach Michael White’s squad.
And it’s been working, especially at home.
In Gainesville, the Gators have held:
- LSU (Adj. Tempo 70.1, 89th) to 66 points.
- Arkansas (Adj. Tempo 71.3, 47th) to 59 points.
- Auburn (Adj.Tempo 69.4, 127th) to 47 points.
In contrast to the above teams, Kentucky plays with an average pace (68.1, 203rd). While I’m not saying Kentucky will be held to less than 66 points, I do think this game is played on the slower side.
Additionally, both of these teams have trended towards the under in recent performances. The under has hit in five of Kentucky’s last six games. In Florida’s last six games, the under has hit in four of them.
I understand that past results are not wholly indicative of future performances (especially in this market), but casual bettors could be tempted to bet the over on a total that looks pretty low.
These teams played just two weeks ago in Lexington, and they scored a total of 124 points.
The under is a pretty good bet here, especially if the total stays above 136.
Pick: Under 136.5 (has since dropped to 134)