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Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Odds & Picks: Will Cards Avenge January Loss to Seminoles?

Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Odds & Picks: Will Cards Avenge January Loss to Seminoles? article feature image

Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: David Johnson and Chris Mack

  • Florida State is a short favorite over Louisville in updated college basketball odds for Monday, with the total up to 142.
  • FSU ran through Louisville earlier this season, but can the Cardinals find revenge in the second meeting?
  • Eli Hershkovich gives his betting pick for Louisville at Florida State.

Eli Hershkovich is an Action Network contributor and produces/hosts the You Better You Bet Podcast on RADIO.COM Sports.

Just four ranked programs are in action on Monday night, so let’s break down a pair of them.

No. 11 Louisville travels to No. 8 Florida State trying to avenge a loss from earlier in the season.

Odds as of Monday morning and via PointsBet. Get up to $275 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Louisville at Florida State Odds

  • Odds: FSU -2.5
  • Over/Under: 140
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Looking back at Louisville’s 78-65 loss to Florida State on Jan. 4, closing as a 6.5-point home favorite, Chris Mack’s team struggled with a more physical unit.

Louisville shot just 37.2% inside the arc despite collecting 19 offensive rebounds, and FSU bullied the Cardinals at the other end.

Nevertheless, there appears to be value in the Cardinals after racking up a pair of dominant wins (Syracuse, North Carolina) following their two-game road skid (Georgia Tech, Clemson).

For one, Mack’s team didn’t have freshman point guard David Johnson in the starting five during that loss, and he’s started to develop into a reliable ball handler and playmaker (36.4% assist rate). Even though Florida State’s Trent Forrest will bother Johnson a bit with his ball pressure (52nd-highest steal rate), look for him to help spark Louisville’s transition attack.

Moreover, Louisville should come out more aggressive on the defensive glass (fourth-highest defensive rebounding rate in ACC play) with FSU notching the top offensive rebounding rate amid its conference slate.

If they’re able to slow down the tempo and keep it more of a half-court affair, expect the Cardinals to find their fair share of clean looks from the perimeter (40.4% in ACC play) — where Leonard’s Hamilton’s squad can be exposed.

I would’ve been slightly concerned about some Cardinals’ 3-point regression entering this one if that hadn’t already occurred a couple weeks ago. Even if there’s a bit more to come, expect them to operate more efficiently off their second-chance opportunities with Florida State tallying the sixth-worst defensive rebounding rate in ACC play.

I’m betting on Louisville to cover this rematch — with the ACC regular season title and NCAA Tournament seeding still up in the air.

Pick: Louisville +2.5

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