Michigan State vs. Indiana Sharp Betting Pick: Big Bets, Pro Action Shaping Spread

Michigan State vs. Indiana Sharp Betting Pick: Big Bets, Pro Action Shaping Spread article feature image
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Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Cassius Winston

  • Michigan State is between a 3.5- 4-point favorite tonight on the road against Indiana (8:30 p.m. ET, FS1).
  • The spread opened at Michigan State -3, so the line has moved a bit throughout the day.
  • A pick from sharp bettors has played a role in the current odds as well.

The Big Ten is king on Thursday’s college hoops slate. As of this morning, it holds both the first and second spots atop the most-heavily-bet-games leaderboard with Michigan State-Indiana and Minnesota-Ohio State, respectively.

The matchup in the Hoosier state is not just the one drawing the most bets, however. It’s also attracting the most action from sharp bettors.


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Michigan State vs. Indiana Odds, Sharp Betting Pick

  • Spread: Michigan State -3.5
  • Over/under: 142.5
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: FS1

Often a simple comparison between opening and current lines will give a fair glimpse into how sharps are viewing a game. That wouldn’t exactly be helpful in this case, though.

Most books opened this spread at Michigan State -3, but the current line of -3.5 shouldn’t be taken as a sign of sharp Sparty action. Instead, it’s been Indiana drawing the attention of pros, though that attention has come only at spreads of +4 or higher — at least to this point.

Michigan State’s No. 11 ranking and top spot in the conference has 73% of bettors happily backing the Spartans at such a short number. As a result, the line was able to reach -4 easily, and a few books have even touched -4.5.

That’s when sharps stepped in.

Per Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market activity caused by sharp action — two significant waves of pro money have hit Indiana, first at +4.5 and again at +4.

Since then, the line has bounced back and forth a bit between +3.5 and +4 as most sportsbooks have been unable to hold the 4-point spread for very long.

It’s also worth noting that Indiana is now drawing more actual money (64%) than Michigan State. That certainly creates a monetary liability, but coming from just a 27% backing, it more importantly serves as a disclosure of the opinion of bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.

Sharp angle: Indiana (moved from +4.5 to +3.5)