Michigan vs. Texas Tech Betting Guide: Who Scores Enough to Advance in 2019 NCAA Tournament?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Michigan guard Jordan Poole, Texas Tech guard Jarrett Culver
#2 Michigan vs. #3 Texas Tech: 2019 NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Michigan -2
- Over/Under: 126
- Location: Anaheim, Calif.
- Date: Thursday, March 28
- Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
>> All odds as of Wednesday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
Thursday, we’ll be treated to a Sweet 16 battle between two elite defensive teams in Texas Tech and Michigan.
The Wolverines and Red Raiders rank first and second respectively in adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, but which team’s offense can provide enough consistent scoring to advance to the Elite Eight?
Let’s dive in.
Michigan’s Sporadic Offense
Head coach John Beilein has appropriately earned the reputation as one of the best offensive coaches in the country, but Michigan’s offense has proved to be vulnerable at times this season.
After starting the year with some blistering 3-point shooting performances, Michigan has been very pedestrian against strong defensive teams, and ranks middle of the pack in 3-point percentage.
In their three games against Michigan State, the Wolverines shot just 30.9% (22 of 71) from beyond the arc. That number was greatly bolstered by simply a 9 of 23 performance in the Big Ten Tournament Championship.
It will be important for Michigan’s small-ball lineup to connect from the perimeter to compensate for its poor offensive rebounding ranking (284th in the country) and free-throw rate.
One place Michigan will excel is turnovers. The Wolverines simply don’t turn the ball over, which will be critical against a Texas Tech defense that force turnovers at a top-10 rate nationally.
Texas Tech’s Offensive Balance the Difference?
The Red Raiders are clicking on offense right now. They are Top-50 in effective field goal percentage while shooting 36.6% from beyond the arc, and have the best player on the floor.
That player, sophomore Jarrett Culver (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.8 apg), will be a difficult matchup for Michigan. He is averaging 25.5 points per game over his past four games.
Guards Davide Moretti (11.5 ppg, 45.4% 3P) and Matt Mooney (10.9 ppg, 38.1% 3P) provide additional high-level efficiency from deep.
Texas Tech also has a big size advantage inside. The Red Raiders rank seventh in the country in defensive block percentage. Senior Tariq Owens (8.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.4 bpg) will be a major factor against Wolverines big Jon Teske.
Texas Tech tied for the Big 12 regular season title, ending Kansas’ 14-year reign. Culver has developed into one of the best two-way players in the country and is playing with supreme confidence. The Red Raiders’ 16th best 3P defense and second best 2P% defense will keep Michigan from scoring consistently.
A fabulous defensive battle will be broken open by a timely Texas Tech 3-point run, making the Red Raiders my play with the points.
THE PICK: Texas Tech +2
Our Projected Odds: Michigan vs. Texas Tech
These ratings were built by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, a former oddsmaker and FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season fantasy football ranker from 2015-2017.
- Spread: Michigan -1.5
- Total: 121.5
- Proj Score: Michigan 61.5 | Texas Tech 60
- Win Probability: Michigan 53.1% | Texas Tech 46.9%
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game is from the individual writer and are based on his research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.