Minnesota vs. Northwestern Odds & Pick: Don’t Buy Wildcats’ Recent Wins (March 11, 2020)

The Big Ten Tournament tips off on Wednesday, and we will see two first round games — No. 13 seed Northwestern vs. No. 12 Minnesota, and No. 14 Nebraska vs. No. 11 Indiana — as the tournament gets whittled down from 14 to 12 teams.

If you want an overall preview of the tournament, check out an article I wrote yesterday, outlining contenders, potential dark horses, and a futures bet that has a ton of value.

[In Indiana? Bet $10 on Wednesday night's Indiana-Nebraska game and win $10 for EVERY 3-pointer made.]

Northwestern v. Minnesota Odds

• Odds: Minnesota -8
• Over/Under: 136
• Time: 6 p.m. ET
• TV: BTN
• Location: Indianapolis, Ind.

These two teams met less than a month ago at Northwestern, and Minnesota absolutely trounced the Wildcats, 83-57. While Northwestern comes into the tournament having won two out of its last three games, those wins were at Nebraska in overtime, and at home against Penn State.

Nebraska is the worst team in the Big Ten, and Penn State has lost five out of its last six games. They are wins, sure, but I wouldn't put too much emphasis on these performances.

As of writing, 22% of the spread bets are on Northwestern, but 77% of the spread money is on the Wildcats. It's a smaller sample size of bets placed, but early sharps are playing Northwestern — and the line has followed, moving down a half-point from the opening spread of Minnesota -8.5.

While I do tend to follow early sharp action, I always recommend readers to be their own sharp.I'm not buying Northwestern here.

I just don't see how the Wildcats score enough points to keep this game close. Northwestern has an effective field goal percentage rate of 47%, 291st in the country and 11th in the Big Ten. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has a defensive effective FG% of 45.6, 22nd in the country and fourth in the Big Ten.

I haven't seen anything from either team to think that this game plays out any differently than Minnesota's 26-point win at Northwestern on Feb. 23.

Our projected spread, based on our power ratings, is Minnesota -9.9. I'm fading the line movement and taking the Gophers at anything under -8.5.

Pick: Minnesota -8