UPDATED: Freedman’s Favorite Thursday NCAA Tournament Player Props
Credit: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
- On Thursday, he runs through the NCAA Tournament slate of games & highlights the points props he likes.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post some official player prop picks.
In this piece I’m going to highlight my favorite NCAA Tournament player props for Thursday, Mar. 21. For my information, check out my piece on my March Madness prop-betting strategy.
You also should look at our live betting odds page for up-to-the-minute lines.
I will attempt to update this piece throughout the day — but no promises. Once I get through the late-afternoon games, I’ll probably be done.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
306-260-12, +34.36 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 185-148-4, +21.75 Units
- NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
- Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
- NASCAR: 5-8-0. -1.70 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
- NCAAB: 2-1-0. +0.87 Units
- Exotic: 23-2-0. +12.64 Units
#7 Louisville vs. #10 Minnesota
- Spread: Louisville -5.0
- Over/Under: 137.0
- Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
Daniel Oturu: Over 9.5 points (-115) – The center is the third-leading scorer for the Gophers. He’s averaging 10.8 points on 23.6 minutes per game. In his 19 games with at least 24 minutes, he’s averaged 12.8 points.
Dupree McBrayer: Under 9.0 points (-115) – The guard has averaged only 8.0 points on 35.2 minutes per game over his past 10 starts, hitting the over just three times in that span.
Dwayne Sutton: Over 9.5 points (-115) – The second-leading scorer for the Cardinals, Sutton has averaged 12.3 points per game as a wing player in his 21 games with 30-plus minutes.
Christen Cunningham: Over 9.0 points (-115) – The guard is the No. 3 scorer for Louisville. In his 19 games with at least 30 minutes, he’s averaged 11.8 points.
Steven Enoch: Under 11.0 points (-115) – The big man hasn’t been a starter since January, and over his past 10 games he’s averaged just 9.3 points on 18.4 minutes per game. He saw just 15.0 minutes per game in the conference tournament.
#4 LSU vs. # 13 Yale
- Spread: LSU -6.5
- Over/Under: 157,0
- Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
Miye Oni: Over 15.0 points (-115) – The guard is the leading scorer for the Bulldogs. In his 17 games with 30-plus minutes, he’s averaged 18.6 points per game.
Tremont Waters: Over 14.5 points (-115) – The No. 1 scorer for the Fighting Tigers, Waters averaged 17.2 points on 33.2 minutes per game in conference play.
Ja’vonte Smart: Under 17.0 points (-115) – Even with an average of 34.2 minutes over his past 10 games, the guard has just 13.6 points per game in that span, hitting the over just three times.
#5 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico State
- Spread: Auburn -6.0
- Over/Under: 146.0
- Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
Terrell Brown: Over 10.5 points (-115) – The guard is the No. 1 scorer for the Aggies, and in his 17 games with 25-plus minutes he’s averaged 13.1 points. In his four losses, he has 12.0 points with 29.3 minutes per game, and I expect him to play more than 30 minutes.
Eli Chuha: Over 9.0 points (-115) – I’m more tentative on this one, but the forward is the second-leading scorer for the Aggies, and he’s averaged 12.8 points across his seven games with 25-plus minutes, hitting the under only once but also pushing twice.
#4 Florida State vs. #13 Vermont
- Spread: Florida State -8.5
- Over/Under: 132.5
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
Anthony Lamb: Over 19.0 points (-115) – The Catamounts opened as 11-point underdogs, so the line is moving toward them, which I think is a good sign for their leading scorer. In his 20 games with 30-plus minutes, he’s averaged 23.6 points. In the conference tournament, he had 26.7 points in 34.3 minutes per game.
Ernie Duncan: Over 10.5 points (-115) – The fifth-year guard is the No. 2 scorer for Vermont, and in his 18 games with 30-plus minutes he’s averaged 15.6 points. Even in his six losses, he’s had 12.2 points with 32 minutes per game.
Mfiondu Kabengele: Over 12.5 points (-115) – The second-year forward is yet to start a college game, but he leads the Seminoles with 12.9 points per game coming off the bench. His playing time can be inconsistent — in the conference tournament he had 29, 16 and 25 minutes — but in his 26 games with 18-plus minutes he’s averaged 14.3 points.
#2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bradley
- Spread: Michigan State -17.5
- Over/Under: 133.5
- Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
Nick Ward: Under 11.0 points (-115) – The forward was a starter for the Spartans most of the year, averaging 15.1 points per game in the regular season, but in the conference tournament he was relegated to the bench and saw no more than 14 minutes in a game. In his four games as a reserve this year, he’s averaged just 6.2 points. But I am a little worried that he could see extra playing time in a potential blowout.
Matt McQuaid: Under 13.5 points (-115) – The guard is averaging just 10.0 points despite ranking second on the team with 30.8 minutes per game. In the conference tournament he had 15.7 points with 34.3 minutes per game, but I don’t expect him to get as much playing time today in a blowout. In Sparty’s 26 wins, McQuaid has averaged 10.4 points.
#6 Maryland vs. #11 Belmont
- Spread: Maryland -3
- Over/Under: 150.5
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- TV: TruTV
Kevin McClain: Over 15.5 points (-115) – The senior guard is second in scoring for the Bruins with 16.7 points per game. While the Bruins have averaged 87.2 points per game this year, their Vegas team total is just 73.5, so we should expect scoring to be depressed. But McClain has averaged 18.9 points in his 18 games with 35-plus minutes. In the conference tournament and play-in game, he averaged 21.0 points with 36 minutes per game. In five losses, he’s averaged 17.8 in 37.8 minutes per game.
Anthony Cowan Jr.: Under 19.0 points (-115) – The junior guard leads the Terrapins in scoring, but I think his point total is aggressively high. He has 16.0 points on 34.5 minutes per game. Over his past 10 starts, he’s averaged 36.3 minutes but scored just 13.8 points per game.
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Northeastern
- Spread: Kansas -6.5
- Over/Under: 143.5
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
Vasa Pusica: Over 16.5 points (-115) – The leading scorer for the Huskies is averaging 35.0 minutes per game, and he’ll likely need to exceed that mark for Northeastern to win. In his 15 games with 35-plus minutes, he has 20.3 points per game.
#5 Marquette vs. #12 Murray State
- Spread: Marquette -3
- Over/Under: 152
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
Ja Morant: Over 23.0 points (-115) – I’ve actually heard of this guy, so I’m betting the over. Plus, his name makes me think of Jorah Mormont, and I just love “Game of Thrones.” Finally, he’s averaging 24.6 points per game. In losses, he has 26.2 per game. He played every minute of the conference tournament for the Racers and averaged 32.5 points. In his 17 games with 38-plus minutes, he’s averaged 29.2 points per game.
Markus Howard: Over 25.5 points (-115) – Although he’s the Big East Player of the Year, the smallish Howard (5-foot-11, 175 pounds) doesn’t have Morant’s hype, but he’s every bit the equal of the Westerosi knight. In what should be a close game against a fellow star, I’m expecting Howard to play almost the whole game. In his 11 games with 38-plus minutes, he’s averaged 28.6 points.