NCAA Tournament Final Four Odds, Picks: 2 College Basketball Bets to Make Right Now

NCAA Tournament Final Four Odds, Picks: 2 College Basketball Bets to Make Right Now article feature image
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Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Vernon Carey Jr. #1 of the Duke Blue Devils

The Final Four is in Atlanta, Ga. this year. Will your favorite team be playing in the final weekend of the NCAA tournament?

The oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have posted odds for the Final Four participants.

No. 1 Kansas is the most likely team to reach the final weekend. The Jayhawks are -140 to play in the Final Four. Baylor (-110) and Gonzaga (-110), two other projected 1-seeds, are the only other teams better than even-money.

We know which teams are most likely to be in Atlanta, but is there value wagering on the favorites?

To determine if a team is a good bet, we looked at current odds to make the Final Four and compared that to our projected odds based on 10,000 simulations of Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.

After running the analysis, two teams popped as good bets to make the Final Four.

NCAA Tournament Final Four Odds, Best Bet Picks

Duke Blue Devils

  • Current odds: +250, Implied probability: 28.6%
  • Blue Devils reach Final Four 34.3% of the time

Duke has lost three of its past five games, including dropping back-to-back outings last week. The poor recent play has knocked the Blue Devils from No. 6 to No. 12 in the AP Poll.

While pollsters are prone to overreact, the underlying numbers haven’t changed for Coach K’s team. In The Action Network power ratings Duke was No. 6 before the skid …. and No. 6 after. The Blue Devils are No. 5 in KenPom’s rankings — one of three teams among the top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

All teams hit rough patches during the season. Savvy bettors understand this and can capitalize by betting inflated lines. Duke is currently +250 to reach the Final Four, but our model would give it +190 odds.

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

West Virginia Mountaineers

  • Current odds: +850, Implied probability: 10.5%
  • Mountaineers reach Final Four 13.4% of the time

WVU is in a free fall. The Mountaineers have lost three in a row and six of their past seven, though context is important. Two of the defeats came against Kansas and Baylor and four losses were on the road.

This recent run of poor play has knocked Bob Huggins’ team out of the Top 25. But like Duke, the advanced stats are higher on WVU than the polls. According to KenPom, West Virginia is No. 14 in the country and our power ratings have it at No. 26.

West Virginia plays a suffocating style of defense that ranks No. 3 in defensive efficiency. Opponents are going to struggle to score against this team in the tournament. With just enough scoring, the Mountaineers are capable of making a run to the Final Four.

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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