2019 NCAA Tournament Odds: Our Projected Spreads, Over/Unders for Each First-Round Matchup

2019 NCAA Tournament Odds: Our Projected Spreads, Over/Unders for Each First-Round Matchup article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Houston guard Corey Davis Jr., Duke forward Zion Williamson, Virginia guard De’Andre Hunter

  • Kick March Madness off with our 2019 NCAA Tournament odds -- the projected spreads and over/unders for every first-round matchup before sportsbooks release them.

The 2019 NCAA Tournament bracket is set.

We’ve used my power ratings to project NCAA Tournament odds. You’ll find projected spreads and over/unders for every first-round matchup below, complete with each team’s odds to advance to the Round of 32.

Let the madness begin.

Jump to: First Four | East Region | South Region | Midwest Region | West Region

FIRST FOUR

Projected Odds: #16 North Dakota State vs. #16 North Carolina Central

  • Spread: North Dakota State -4.5
  • Total: 137.5
  • Proj Score: North Dakota State 71 | North Carolina Central 66.5
  • Win Probability: North Dakota State 66% | North Carolina Central 34%

Projected Odds: #11 Belmont vs. #11 Temple

  • Spread: Belmont -2.5
  • Total: 151.5
  • Proj Score: Belmont 77 | Temple 74.5
  • Win Probability: Belmont 57.2% | Temple 42.8%

Projected Odds: #16 Prairie View A&M vs. #16 Farleigh Dickinson

  • Spread: Prairie View A&M +0.5
  • Over/Under: 146
  • Score: Prairie View A&M 73 | Farleigh Dickinson 73.5
  • Win Probability: Prairie View A&M 49.9% | Farleigh Dickinson 50.1%

Projected Odds: #11 Arizona State vs. #11 St. John’s

  • Spread: Arizona State PK
  • Total: 147.5
  • Proj Score: Arizona State 74 | St. John’s 74
  • Win Probability: Arizona State 50% | St. John’s 50%

EAST REGION

Projected Odds: #1 Duke vs. #16 North Carolina Central/North Dakota State

  • Spread: Duke -35 vs. NC Central | Duke -30.5 vs. ND State
  • Over/Under: 141 vs. NC Central | 145.5 vs. ND State
  • Score vs. NC Central: Duke 88 | NC Central 53
  • Score vs. ND State: Duke 88 | ND State 57.5
  • Win Probability for Duke-NC Central: Duke 99.9% | NC Central 0.1%
  • Win Probability for Duke-ND State: Duke 99.9% | ND State 0.1%

Projected Odds: #8 VCU vs. #9 UCF

  • Spread: VCU +2
  • Total: 125.5
  • Proj Score: VCU 62 | UCF 64
  • Win Probability: VCU 44.1% | UCF 55.9%

Projected Odds: #5 Mississippi State vs. #12 Liberty

  • Spread: Mississippi State -9
  • Total: 136.5
  • Proj Score: Mississippi State 73 | Liberty 64
  • Win Probability: Mississippi State 82.8% | Liberty 17.2%

Projected Odds: #4 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Saint Louis

  • Spread: Virginia Tech -12
  • Total: 130
  • Proj Score: Virginia Tech 71 | Saint Louis 59
  • Win Probability: Virginia Tech 88.2% | Saint Louis 11.8%

Projected Odds: #6 Maryland vs. #11 Temple/Belmont

  • Spread: Maryland -7.5 vs. Temple | Maryland -5 vs. Belmont
  • Over/Under: 138 vs. Temple | 148 vs. Belmont
  • Score vs. Temple: Maryland 73 | Temple 65.5
  • Score vs. Belmont: Maryland 76.5 | Belmont 71.5
  • Win Probability for Maryland-Temple: Maryland 76.8% | Temple 23.2%
  • Win Probability for Maryland-Belmont: Maryland 66.1% | Belmont 33.9%

Projected Odds: #3 LSU vs. #14 Yale

  • Spread: LSU -10.5
  • Total: 151.5
  • Proj Score: LSU 81 | Yale 70.5
  • Win Probability: LSU 85.7% | Yale 14.3%

Projected Odds: #7 Louisville vs. #10 Minnesota

  • Spread: Louisville -4
  • Total: 135
  • Proj Score: Louisville 69.5 | Minnesota 65.5
  • Win Probability: Louisville 64% | Minnesota 36%

Projected Odds: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bradley

  • Spread: Michigan State -22
  • Total: 135.5
  • Proj Score: Michigan State 79 | Bradley 57
  • Win Probability: Michigan State 98.9% | Bradley 1.1%

SOUTH REGION

Projected Odds: #1 Virginia vs. #16 Gardner-Webb

  • Spread: Virginia -26.5
  • Over/Under: 132.5
  • Score: Virginia 79.5 | Gardner-Webb 53
  • Win Probability: Virginia 99.3% | Gardner-Webb 0.7%

Projected Odds: #8 Mississippi vs. #9 Oklahoma

  • Spread: Mississippi PK
  • Total: 140
  • Proj Score: Mississippi 70 | Oklahoma 70
  • Win Probability: Mississippi 50% | Oklahoma 50%

Projected Odds: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Oregon

  • Spread: Wisconsin -5.5
  • Total: 121.5
  • Proj Score: Wisconsin 63.5 | Oregon 58
  • Win Probability: Wisconsin 70% | Oregon 30%

Projected Odds: #4 Kansas State vs. #13 UC Irvine

  • Spread: Kansas State -10
  • Total: 119
  • Proj Score: Kansas State 64.5 | UC Irvine 54.5
  • Win Probability: Kansas State 84.3% | UC Irvine 15.7%

Projected Odds: #6 Villanova vs. #11 St. Mary’s

  • Spread: Villanova -3
  • Total: 137
  • Proj Score: Villanova 70 | St. Mary’s 67
  • Win Probability: Villanova 62.1% | St. Mary’s 37.9%

Projected Odds: #3 Purdue vs. #14 Old Dominion

  • Spread: Purdue -15
  • Total: 133
  • Proj Score: Purdue 74 | Old Dominion 59
  • Win Probability: Purdue 94.9% | Old Dominion 5.1%

Projected Odds: #7 Cincinnati vs. #10 Iowa

  • Spread: Cincinnati -0.5
  • Total: 142.5
  • Proj Score: Cincinnati 71.5 | Iowa 71
  • Win Probability: Cincinnati 50.1% | Iowa 49.9%

Projected Odds: #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Colgate

  • Spread: Tennessee -18
  • Total: 146
  • Proj Score: Tennessee 82 | Colgate 64
  • Win Probability: Tennessee 97.2% | Colgate 2.8%

MIDWEST REGION

Projected Odds: #1 North Carolina vs. #16 Iona

  • Spread: North Carolina -25
  • Over/Under: 158
  • Score: North Carolina 91.5 | Iona 66.5
  • Win Probability: North Carolina 99.3% | Iona 0.7%

Projected Odds: #8 Utah State vs. #9 Washington

  • Spread: Utah State +0.5
  • Total: 133
  • Proj Score: Utah State 66.5 | Washington 67
  • Win Probability: Utah State 49.9% | Washington 50.1%

Projected Odds: #5 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico State

  • Spread: Auburn -8.5
  • Total: 142
  • Proj Score: Auburn 75.5 | New Mexico State 67
  • Win Probability: Auburn 81.7% | New Mexico State 18.3%

Projected Odds: #4 Kansas vs. #13 Northeastern

  • Spread: Kansas -11
  • Total: 142.5
  • Proj Score: Kansas 77 | Northeastern 66
  • Win Probability: Kansas 86.3% | Northeastern 13.7%

Projected Odds: #6 Iowa State vs. #11 Ohio State

  • Spread: Iowa State -5
  • Total: 137.5
  • Proj Score: Iowa State 71.5 | Ohio State 66.5
  • Win Probability: Iowa State 66.1% | Ohio State 33.9%

Projected Odds: #3 Houston vs. #14 Georgia State

  • Spread: Houston -12
  • Total: 140
  • Proj Score: Houston 76 | Georgia State 64
  • Win Probability: Houston 88.2% | Georgia State 11.8%

Projected Odds: #7 Wofford vs. #10 Seton Hall

  • Spread: Wofford -1
  • Total: 141
  • Proj Score: Wofford 71 | Seton Hall 70
  • Win Probability: Wofford 50.2% | Seton Hall 49.8%

Projected Odds: #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Abilene Christian

  • Spread: Kentucky -22.5
  • Total: 133
  • Proj Score: Kentucky 78 | Abilene Christian 55.5
  • Win Probability: Kentucky 99.3% | Abilene Christian 0.7%

WEST REGION

Projected Odds: #1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M

  • Spread: Gonzaga -28 vs. FDU | Gonzaga -28.5 vs. PV
  • Over/Under: 153 vs. FDU | 150.5 vs. PV
  • Score vs. FDU: Gonzaga 90.5 | FDU 62.53
  • Score vs. PV: Gonzaga 89.5 | PV 61
  • Win Probability for Gonzaga-FDU: Gonzaga 99.3% | FDU 0.7%
  • Win Probability for Gonzaga-PV: Gonzaga 99.3% | PV 0.7%

Projected Odds: #8 Syracuse vs. #9 Baylor

  • Spread: Syracuse -1
  • Total: 133.5
  • Proj Score: Syracuse 67.5 | Baylor 66.5
  • Win Probability: Syracuse 50.2% | Baylor 49.8%

Projected Odds: #5 Marquette vs. #12 Murray State

  • Spread: Marquette -5
  • Total: 144.5
  • Proj Score: Marquette 75 | Murray State 70
  • Win Probability: Marquette 66.1% | Murray State 33.9%

Projected Odds: #4 Florida State vs. #13 Vermont

  • Spread: Florida State -11
  • Total: 134.5
  • Proj Score: Florida State 73 | Vermont 62
  • Win Probability: Florida State 86.3% | Vermont 13.7%

Projected Odds: #6 Buffalo vs. #11 Arizona State/St. John’s

  • Spread: Buffalo -4.5 vs. ASU | Buffalo -4.5 vs. SJU
  • Over/Under: 149.5 vs. ASU | 152 vs. SJU
  • Score vs. ASU: Buffalo 77 | ASU 72.5
  • Score vs. SJU: Buffalo 78.5 | SJU 74
  • Win Probability for Buffalo-ASU: Buffalo 66% | ASU 34%
  • Win Probability for Buffalo-SJU: Buffalo 66% | SJU 34%

Projected Odds: #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Northern Kentucky

  • Spread: Texas Tech -15.5
  • Total: 134
  • Proj Score: Texas Tech 75 | Northern Kentucky 59.5
  • Win Probability: Texas Tech 96.8% | Northern Kentucky 3.2%

Projected Odds: #7 Nevada vs. #10 Florida

  • Spread: Nevada -1.5
  • Total: 132.5
  • Proj Score: Nevada 67 | Florida 65.5
  • Win Probability: Nevada 53.1% | Florida 46.9%

Projected Odds: #2 Michigan vs. #15 Montana

  • Spread: Michigan -19.5
  • Total: 132.5
  • Proj Score: Michigan 76 | Montana 56.5
  • Win Probability: Michigan 97.7% | Montana 2.3%
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