Nevada-Utah State Betting Guide: Will Raucous Environment or Experience Win Out?

Nevada at Utah State Betting Odds

• Spread: Nevada -1.5
• Over/Under: 143.5
• Time: 8:30 p.m.
• TV: CBS Sports Network

It may not be the most on-the-radar game Saturday, but there may not be one in the country with bigger stakes for the teams than Utah State and Nevada.

Which top-40 team will prevail? Our analysts break it all down.

Market Moves

While the spread has remained at Nevada -1.5 since open, the total has jumped up two points to 143.5, reaching as high as 144.5.

As of Saturday morning, Nevada is getting 70% of the bets but just half the money wagered. — Steve Petrella

Trends to Know

Eric Musselman has been the head coach at Nevada for four seasons. In that time, his most profitable opponent against the spread has been Utah State, with Nevada going 7-1 straight up and against the spread, profiting bettors 5.7 units. — Evan Abrams

Nevada is 26-2 straight up this season entering maybe its toughest test of the year on the road against Utah State, but the Wolf Pack have actually dropped three consecutive games against the spread.

Since 2005, teams in March or later with a winning percentage of 90% or higher that have lost at least three consecutive games against the spread are 12-6-1 (66.7%) ATS, with seven consecutive teams in this spot winning straight up. — Evan Abrams

When Nevada Has the Ball

There’s no doubt this matchup should be much closer than the Wolf Pack’s 23-point thrashing of the Aggies on Jan. 2, especially with the road squad unlikely to generate as many fastbreak opportunities. Nevertheless, Eric Musselman’s Nevada team boasts a couple advantages.

Although Nevada’s perimeter offense wasn’t successful in the first meeting (7 of 29), it has still generated the fourth-most 3-point attempts per game in Mountain West play. Not only has Utah State yielded the highest 3-point clip (39.1%) in its league slate because of its pack-line defense, but it’s also allowed the second-highest scoring rate (40.6%) from that vicinity.

The Wolf Pack own a 39.5% 3-point clip over their past three games, and the 6-foot-7 Caleb Martin (19.4 points per game) is starting to heat up. Unless Nevada produces another abysmal first-half clunker, it’ll establish its perimeter offense before getting into the lane, where it has notched the 26th-highest free-throw rate (40.5%) in Division I.

The Aggies have let up an above-average free-throw rate, and the Wolf Pack got 20 attempts at the line in their last go-around. — Eli Hershkovich

When Utah State Has the Ball

Coach Craig Smith runs a deliberate and efficient offense. The Aggies are first within the Mountain West Conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and free throw percentage. They will also look to exploit their huge advantage on the boards, ranking first in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage.

Utah State has improved its 3-point shooting throughout the season. While Sam Merrill is lethal from deep, the key for the Aggies is getting Brock Miller (8.3 ppg) back on track. The freshman guard is still shooting 35% from 3-point range despite only going 5 of 27 from deep over the past four games.

Another important battle is on the interior between Utah State’s Neemias Queta and Nevada’s Trey Porter. Queta had a string of seven consecutive double-digit rebounding games in the last month. The Aggies should be able to take advantage of Porter, who is only averaging 4 points and 2.1 rebounds over his past three games.

Finally, Utah State holds a huge advantage late in games, boasting the 33rd best free throw shooting percentage in the country. Merrill (90.6%), Miller (87%) and Diego Brito (80.4%) are three of the best free throw shooters in the Mountain West. — Mike Randle

Stuckey's Angles: Assessing Utah State's Defense

Let’s give some props to Craig Smith, who is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and on his way to an even bigger job in the future. The Tim Miles disciple has done nothing but turn programs around throughout his career, including a spectacular turnaround at South Dakota in his most recent stop before Utah State. And he’s continued that success in Logan, as he has a team picked ninth in the preseason in the MWC potentially in position to win the regular season title and secure a No. 1 seed.

It starts with defense for Utah State, which runs a scheme with pack line principles. The Aggies have a ton of length, starting with 6-foot-11 freshman phenom Neemis Queta in the center. Queta, who hails from Portugal, ranks in the top 10 in blocks and anchors a Utah State defense that ranks top three nationally in both 2-point percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. The Aggies just don’t allow anything easy at the rim and they clean up their opponent misses as well as any team in the country. They should have success on the boards against a Nevada team that ranks outside the top 250 in offensive rebounding percentage.

You can attribute some of that success to scheme, but it also speaks to Utah State’s length, which is important against Nevada (both teams rank in the top 40 in average height).

Now, as a result of that defensive scheme, Utah State is vulnerable on the perimeter. It ranks 245th in the nation in 3-point defense, allowing teams to shoot 35.8% from deep — and a whopping 39.1% during conference play, which is inflated somewhat due to bad luck. Nevada is more than capable from 3, and if the Wolf Pack are hot from the outside, it might be tough for the Aggies.

Still, this Utah State defense only allows 0.833 points per possession (89th percentile). And it has the motion half court offense to match (88th percentile in PPP), led by Sam Merrill (20.2 ppg).

Utah State passes the eye test and the metrics test, but the competition has been subpar, which is why this game is so massive.

Nevada has elite numbers across the board as well, especially on offense, and its actually the Pack that have been the best defense in the MWC during conference play.

The Spectrum will be a zoo, and Utah State is not just looking for revenge but also will be playing for its NCAA Tournament life, so it should be the more desperate team. However, Nevada has the experience edge, as the Pack are the second-most experienced team in Division I, while Utah State is 281st. The Pack played in many big-stage games during their tourney run last year and that will come in handy.

I actually make Utah State a slight favorite in this spot. It will be desperation and revenge in front of a raucous home crowd vs. the experience and talent of Nevada. It may just come down to how Nevada shoots at the 3-point line.— Stuckey

The Stakes

This game has higher stakes than Kentucky-Tennessee, which has massive SEC and NCAA tournament No. 1 seed implications. The reason? Well, the outcome could decide Utah State’s at-large hopes. A win, and the Aggies will likely find themselves in the dance if they just beat who they are supposed to beat the rest of the way. But a loss could mean an NIT appearance for Craig Smith’s bunch, which only has one Quad 1 win — a neutral court victory over St. Mary’s, which isn’t going to wow anybody.

And even though Nevada is squarely in the tournament field, this game still holds a lot of importance to the Pack, who, believe it or not, have played ZERO Quad 1 games this season. Nada. A loss to Utah State could ultimately cost Nevada one of the 16 coveted protected seeds. And at No. 18 in the NET rankings, it’s hard to argue they would deserve it with an 0-1 Quad 1 record.

Not only could this game determine if Utah State gets a ticket to the dance and whether Nevada gets a protected seed, but it will also have massive implications on the Mountain West Conference regular season race and conference tournament seeding. A win by Utah State would create a two-way tie with Nevada atop the standings. If both teams then win out, the tiebreaker will come down to who finishes with a better record between Fresno and San Diego State to determine who gets the No. 1 seed in Vegas for the MWC tournament.

This game is important on many different levels. — Stuckey