Saturday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: LSU-Alabama, Penn State-Wisconsin

Saturday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: LSU-Alabama, Penn State-Wisconsin article feature image
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Stevens and Marlon Taylor

Among the 135 college hoops games on Saturday's card, 19 ranked teams take the court. Let's shift our attention to the early slate, as No. 13 LSU travels to Alabama before Penn State faces No. 19 Wisconsin in Madison.

Where's the value in each of these games? Let's break it down.


>> All odds as of Friday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


LSU at Alabama Betting Odds

  • Spread: LSU -1.5
  • Over/Under: 149.5
  • Time: Noon ET
  • TV: ESPN

The Tigers (16-11-1 against the spread) have covered in five of their past seven games while the Crimson Tide (12-15-1 ATS) are 3-4 ATS during that span.

LSU point guard Tremont Waters (15.7 points per game) is expected to suit up after missing the past two contests with an illness. Waters scorched Alabama for a 19-point, 7-assist, 4-rebound performance in Baton Rouge on Jan. 8.

He also hit two of the Tigers' 10 3-pointers that evening, as they shot 66.7% from the perimeter. Expect some negative regression this time around, as LSU owns a below-average 3-point clip (31.9%). Avery Johnson's Alabama team is holding its conference foes to the lowest perimeter percentage (31.9%) and scoring rate (25.5%) from that department, respectively, during its league stretch.



The Tide should also be able to challenge the Tigers' highest-ranked offensive rebounding rate (38.1%) in SEC play, boasting a size advantage to go along with their third-ranked defensive rebounding percentage (27.5%). The trigger to their success is the 6-foot-9 Donta Hall, who's tallied the 63th-highest individual defensive rebounding rate (24.6%) across the country.

At the other end, Hall (11.0 ppg) should have a productive day against an LSU team yielding the second-highest 2-point (52.8%) and third-highest scoring rate (52.1%) from that area, respectively, in conference action. That'll open things up for their perimeter attack as well.

According to our Bet Labs data, the Tide are 6-0 ATS at home vs. ranked SEC opponents over the past two seasons. There's a real advantage in Tuscaloosa, so take the dog in this revenge spot.

THE PICK: Alabama +1.5

Penn State at Wisconsin

  • Spread: Wisconsin -7.5
  • Over/Under: 130.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: Big Ten Network

The Badgers (14-13-1 ATS) have struggled as a favorite over their past three affairs, going 0-2-1 ATS. The line is too inflated given the Nittany Lions' (14-14 ATS) much-improved play, covering in seven consecutive games, as this isn't the same bunch that took in a 19-point beatdown by Greg Gard's club on Jan. 6.

Pat Chambers' unit has been particularly effective in its past three contests, averaging 1.22 points per possession while holding the opposition to 0.98 PPP. The 6-foot-8 Lamar Stevens has been the catalyst offensively, scoring 26.0 ppg while shooting 60.0% from the field during that span.

Stevens is at his best off the dribble drive and in the low-post, helping Penn State produce the Big Ten's fifth-highest 2-point scoring rate (53.1%) in league play. Wisconsin has let up the fourth-highest scoring percentage (53.6%) from that vicinity, which should allow him and the 6-foot-9 Mike Watkins to have his way on the block.

On the flip side, the Badgers have totaled the fourth-highest 2-point scoring rate (54.6%) during their league slate, thanks to much of their offense running through Ethan Happ (17.9 ppg). But the Nittany Lions' interior defense has shored up during their resurgence, giving up the fifth-lowest scoring percentage (49.8%). Watkins should be a handful for Happ on the block via his physical nature.

If the score finds itself closer to the line than anticipated, the Hack-a-Happ strategy should work to perfection, as he's shooting a mere 34.0% from the line over his past nine matchups.

Wisconsin has the Big Ten's lowest free-throw clip (64.6%) as a result.

THE PICK: Penn State +7.5

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Sean Treppedi
Mar 28, 2024 UTC