Koerner’s Sweet 16 Power Ratings: Slight Value on Purdue Thursday Night
Photo credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Purdue Boilermakers guard Carsen Edwards
- Not sure if you should pull the trigger on that three-team moneyline parlay in Thursday's Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament slate? We can help.
- Below, you can download a sheet and plug in your sportsbook's spreads, moneyline and parlay values to see how they align with our game projections.
- Easily view the projected edge for each game and take advantage of each slate's best betting spots.
With our awesome app and tools, we try to make sports betting as non-overwhelming as possible. But it still has its moments for all of us: You like that spread at +7 with -110 juice, but is it still viable at +8 and -120 juice?
In the ramp up to this year’s NCAA Tournament, we’ve released a ton of data, including proprietary power ratings from Sean Koerner that have allowed us to give “true” odds on every team to win each game and thus the “true” spread on it.
So we thought it might help if we gave out a handy sheet (download it below) that has our win probabilities built in, and at your own leisure, you can insert the spreads, moneylines and parlay values at your own sportsbooks and see how they stack up to our projections. It’s another way to make betting less of a math headache.
Below you’ll find a sheet with three tabs, one for spreads, one for moneylines and another with a parlay calculator. Again, just insert your book’s numbers and we’ll spit out the projected edge. Yes, it’s literally that simple.
But first, let’s dive into Thursday’s slate of Sweet 16 games.
Betting Edges for Thursday’s Sweet 16 Slate
I’ll be completely honest: There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of edges based on the betting market and our power ratings for Thursday’s games.
The game with the biggest difference is in Tennessee-Purdue: The current market consensus is at Tennessee -1.5, we have the true odds at -0.5 — so closer to a pick’em.
Still, I wanted to provide the spreadsheet to our subs anyway because it can still provide value (and because I promised!). Perhaps the lines move right before game time due to heavy public support on one side.
Or maybe you want to see whether it’s worth it to buy that half point at extra juice or see if there’s any parlay value.
Have at it and good luck.
NCAA Tournament Thursday Betting Slate: Best Spread, Moneyline and Parlay Values
Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.