Freedman’s Favorite Texas Tech-Buffalo NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bets

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional official player prop picks.

In this piece I’m going to highlight my favorite NCAA Tournament player props for the Texas Tech-Buffalo game. For more information, check out my piece on my March Madness prop-betting strategy.

You also should look at our live betting odds page for up-to-the-minute lines.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

346-284-12, +44.14 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 198-154-4, +26.06 Units
• NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
• Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
• NASCAR: 5-8-0. -1.70 Units
• NCAAB: 29-19-0. +6.35 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 23-2-0. +12.64 Units

#3 Texas Tech vs. #6 Buffalo

• Spread: Texas Tech -3.5
• Over/Under: 146
• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Davide Moretti Over 12.0 points (+100)

The sophomore guard is second on the Red Raiders with 11.5 points and 30.9 minutes per game, and I like his chances of hitting the over for two primary reasons.

First, I'm expecting him to get more playing time. In each of his two postseason games, he's played 34 minutes. In what could be a close contest, he should be on the court for the vast majority of the game.

Second, Texas Tech is implied for 75.25 points, which exceeds its season average of 73.1 points per game. It's possible that there could be more points to go around than usual for the entire Red Raiders offense, which should benefit Moretti.

Tariq Owens Over 9.5 points (-115)

The senior forward isn't a top contributor for the Red Raiders, ranking outside the top three with 8.9 points and 25.0 minutes per game.

But he is a starter, and in the postseason he has averaged 13.0 points and 32.0 minutes, scoring double-digit points in both of his games.

Jeremy Harris Under 15.0 points (-115)

The senior guard is respectively second and third on the Bulls with 31.1 minutes and 14.2 points per game, so he's likely to get his opportunities.

But Buffalo is implied for just 71.25 points vs. Texas Tech, compared to its per-game average this year of 85.1. We should expect to see depressed scoring overall for the Bulls.

Harris has yet to play more than 36 minutes in the postseason, but even if he hits that threshold, he could still struggle to surpass 15 points against a Red Raiders defense that has held opposing offenses to just 59.2 points per game.

Jayvon Graves: Over 9.0 points (-115)

The sophomore starter played a season-high 34 minutes in Round 1, and I think that usage might be indicative of what we'll see in Round 2, given that the Bulls are underdogs in a must-win situation.

The Bulls are likely to fall short of the 85.1 points per game they've averaged this year, and Graves is just fourth on the team with 10.0 points per game, but in the postseason he's averaged 29.8 minutes vs. the 24.5 he saw in the regular season.

If Graves plays 30-plus minutes, he has a good chance to score more than nine points even with fewer points overall for the offense.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.