VCU-UCF Betting Odds: Spread, Analysis in 2019 NCAA Tournament

#8 VCU vs. #9 UCF NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

• Spread: VCU -1
• Over/Under: 125
• Date: Friday, March 22
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Location: Columbia, S.C.
• TV: CBS

VCU's Statistical Profile

VCU is having a surprise season. The Rams were picked to finish seventh in the A-10 but went 16-2 in league play and 25-6 overall. Coach Mike Rhoades was named A-10 Coach of the Year and guard Marcus Evans received First-Team All-Conference honors.

The Rams win games with their defense. VCU ranks 33rd overall in KenPom’s and is 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The team has held opponents to 61.2 ppg – 7th in the country.

Rhoades has the Rams making their eighth consecutive NCAA tournament. VCU hasn’t made it out of the first weekend of the tournament since their magical run to the Final Four in 2011.

The Rams have a stellar 14-4 against the spread record in the Big Dance since 2005 but the program is only 3-3 ATS in their past six tourney games. — John Ewing

• Record: 25-7
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 33
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 173
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
• Tempo Rank: 138

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Central Florida's Statistical Profile

Central Florida’s AAC tournament run ended abruptly, losing by 24 as a 4-seed to No. 5 Memphis. That’s not to take away from what was a solid season for the Knights, who finished 13-5 in the regular season in conference play, good for third place behind Houston and Cincinnati.

Speaking of those squads, UCF took both of them down consecutively just a couple weeks ago. The 69-64 win on the road over then No. 8 Houston was certainly the statement win of the year for the Knights.

The face of this Central Florida team is Tacko Fall, largely because he’s just so hard to miss. At 7-foot-6 and 310 pounds, Fall led the team in rebounds with 7.3 rebounds per game, and added 10.9 points per game to that stat line.

This is only the fifth time the Knights have made the Big Dance, and their first appearance since 2005. They’ve never been higher than a 14-seed in the past, though, and will be looking for their first ever tournament win this year.
— Danny Donahue

• Record: 23-8
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 37
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 48
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 36
• Tempo Rank: 310

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

VCU-UCF Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

Moreover, UCF's biggest offensive strength is playing through the 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall in the low-post, and getting to the line off the dribble drive. The Rams boast the second-highest 2-point defense (43.8%) in the country, so look for them to stymie Johnny Dawkins' crew in half-court sets.

Mike Rhoades' offense will be able to control the glass at the other end to keep the Knights in a funk, exposing their leaky interior defense.

Early ATS lean: VCU
Early bracket pick: VCU — Eli

Sean Koerner's VCU-UCF Projections

Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

• Spread: VCU +2
• Total: 125.5
• Proj Score: VCU 62 | UCF 64
• Win Probability: VCU 44.1% | UCF 55.9%

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