Virginia Tech vs. Liberty Betting Guide: Can the Flames Get Hot Enough From Outside?

Virginia Tech vs. Liberty Betting Guide: Can the Flames Get Hot Enough From Outside? article feature image
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#4 Virginia Tech vs. #12 Liberty: NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

  • Spread: Virginia Tech -8.5
  • Over/Under: 124.5
  • Date: Sunday, March 24
  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Location: San Jose, Calif.
  • TV: TBS

>> All odds as of Sunday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


We are two results away from the one Sweet 16 matchup I wanted more than any heading into the tournament: Duke vs. Virginia Tech. I truly think the Hokies can beat the Blue Devils, especially now that Justin Robinson back.

However, it’s certainly not a lock that Buzz Williams’ squad will advance today. Let’s take a look at the matchup, which I think provides some value on the side and over/under.

Key Matchup in Virginia Tech-Liberty

If you recall, I bet Virginia Tech in the first round against Saint Louis since the Billikens simply can’t shoot. They ranked 322nd in the country in Effective FG% and 30.8% from deep, which is the third-worst rate in the tourney field.

And that just spelled disaster against a Virginia Tech defense that goes under screens.

Virginia Tech’s 50.1% opponent 3-point rate is the third highest in the country. It forces you to shoot a bunch of outside shots. That was a nightmare for Saint Louis, but Liberty is not Saint Louis.

The Flames rank 10th nationally in Effective FG% (56.1) and 51st in the country in 3P% (37.0). They have the shooters that Saint Louis lacked. Just ask Mississippi State.

Other Factors to Consider

We have a snail race on our hands in San Jose. The Hokies are in no rush, ranking 337th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom. And the Flames are even slower at 349th in that same category.

Both teams are excellent from the free throw line, so Virginia Tech won’t enjoy the edge it had against the Billikens.

The Pick

Liberty is simply getting too many points in a game that should be an absolute grinder. The Flames also have the personnel to succeed against Virginia Tech’s defense.

And looking ahead, the ideal situation would be a Virginia Tech one-point win and a Duke blowout to potentially give us even more value with the Hokies against Duke next Friday night. Just like Saint Louis, Duke can’t shoot the 3.

But this experienced Liberty team can. VT better be careful.

Stuckey’s Pick: Liberty +8.5/Under 124.5

Sean Koerner’s VT-Liberty Projections

Get point spreads for this game and every possible tournament matchup with our bracket simulator built by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, a former oddsmaker and FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season fantasy football ranker from 2015-2017.

  • Spread: Virginia Tech -9
  • Total: 132.5
  • Proj Score: Virginia Tech 71 | Liberty 62
  • Win Probability: Virginia Tech 82.8% | Liberty 17.2%

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game is from the individual writer and are based on his research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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