Virginia-UNC Betting Guide: UVA Has Owned Series, But Is It Overvalued?

Feb 11, 2019 06:00 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Guy and Nassir Little

Virginia-North Carolina Betting Odds

  • Odds: Virginia -1
  • Total: 141
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and win probabilities on your bets.


Virginia must bounce back from a home loss to Duke on just two days rest. Trouble is, it comes in Chapel Hill against North Carolina.

UVA has owned this matchup in recent years, but will that continue? Our analysts dive in.

Market Moves for Virginia-North Carolina

Westgate opened at a pick’em on Sunday night, moved to Virginia -1, then moved back to a pick’em. More than 75% of bets we’re tracking are on Virginia as of Monday morning.

The total has dropped, as well, from 143 to 141. — Steve Petrella

Trends to Know

After losing to Duke on Saturday, can Virginia bounce back against North Carolina? History suggests UVA will cover.

Since 2005, top 10 teams coming off a loss have gone 86-68-6 (56%) ATS when facing a ranked opponent in their next game. If they are an underdog, like the Hoos, they have gone 32-19-3 ATS. — John Ewing

Roy Williams and Tony Bennett have faced off 15 times since Bennett moved from Washington State to Charlottesville in 2009. In that span, Williams is 5-10 (33.3%) ATS against Bennett, failing to cover the spread in his last three games. Since 2009, Roy Williams’ least profitable opposing coach is Bennett, losing UNC backers 5.4 units. — Evan Abrams

When Virginia Has the Ball

Virginia has to execute in the half-court, particularly inside the arc. Within ACC games, North Carolina ranks only 10th best in 2P% defense. It doesn’t have to rely on the 3P against the Tar Heels.

The Cavaliers should be able to run their half-court offense and produce high percentage shots. In UNC’s four losses, their opponents have shot the following 2P percentages: 57.1%, 62.5%, 48.7%, 60.7%.

Of course, shooting the 3-pointer well would be a huge bonus for UVA. In those same four losses, North Carolina’s opponents have shot a combined 43% (42 of 98) from 3-point range. Virginia is one of the few teams that has the personnel to be efficient from both inside and outside the arc. The Cavaliers are the furthest thing from a one-dimensional team.

Given North Carolina’s average of 30.2 defensive rebounds per game (fifth nationally), it’s important that Virginia gets quality attempts as often as possible.

The Cavaliers are good but not great on the offensive boards. They average 9.5 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 226th nationally. Against the fast break offense of North Carolina, the Cavaliers will be unlikely to exceed that average. — Mike Randle

When UNC Has the Ball

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