College Basketball Daytime Betting Special: PRO Systems, Sharp Action, Our Picks for 4 Afternoon Games
Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Arnaldo Toro
The best part about college basketball conference tournaments? Daytime gambling. Thanks to all who submitted other answers, but we have our winner, and quite frankly, you were wrong anyway.
While we always want to provide quality information and winners here, sometimes you just need to get in on the action. We’re here to help.
Wednesday offers eight games that tip off before 5 p.m. ET, including an 11:30 a.m. ET tip in Boise. 11:30 in the morning, and even earlier in every other timezone!
Clemson vs. Miami Sharp Action
- Odds: Clemson -3
- Over/Under: 131.5
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Depending on timing and book, the Miami-Clemson total opened anywhere between 132 and 133.5. And as is often the case, the public has sided with the over, not looking to root for a defensive game while sitting in their cubicles. Sixty-five percent of bettors, to be exact, have taken the over.
However, despite that support, oddsmakers have actually brought the number down to 131/131.5.
As you could’ve probably guessed, sharps have been behind that move. Two Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of smart money hitting the market in real time — have been triggered on the under at 132, explaining why oddsmakers have felt the need to move away from the popular side.
On top of that, the 35% backing of the under has accounted for 54% of actual money being wagered, meaning under bettors are making the bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps. — Danny Donahue
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 133 to 131.5)
Track sharp action in real-time at Sports Insights.
Bet Labs System Matches in Atlantic 10
Two Atlantic 10 games will tip during the day, and both match a profitable Bet Labs system.
During the regular season, it’s profitable to bet on teams that haven’t covered in consecutive games against teams that have been covering, since the market tends to under and overvalue each.
But in the postseason, it’s the opposite.
Since 2005, teams with good recent ATS form have gone 312-247-11 (56%) ATS when facing an opponent with bad recent ATS form (1-4 or worse).
A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $4,847.
- George Mason (-4.5) vs. St. Joseph’s (1 p.m. ET)
- Fordham (+3) vs. George Washington (3:30 p.m. ET)
[Big Ten Tourney Promo! Bet $10 on Wednesday night’s Indiana-Nebraska game and win $10 for EVERY 3-pointer made.]
Oregon State vs. Utah
- Spread: Oregon State -3
- Total: 135.5
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- TV: Pac-12 Network
- Location: Las Vegas
Oregon State has been highly reliable in the past month. The Beavers have beaten teams that they’re supposed to beat and they cover spreads.
And when they face premium competition, they’re often run right out of the building. Those two normals account for their wins straight-up and ATS against Utah, Stanford, and Cal as well as their losses to Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon.
Utah, meanwhile, has been all over the map with wins over Colorado and USC in recent weeks balanced by blowout losses to Cal and Stanford.
As long as Oregon State can avoiding falling in love with the three (32.3%, 220th), its efficient 2P offense should shine through and win the day. Oregon State’s star senior, Tres Tinkle, has also come alive down the stretch, with three 23-plus point performances in his last four games.
The value in this spot is taking the Beavers on the alternate line, counting on the Utes to implode and rooting for a repeat performance of their 70-51 blowout of Utah back on Feb. 13. — Mike Calabrese
Pick: Alternate Line OSU -10.5 (+250)
Fordham vs. George Washington Total
- Spread: George Washington -3
- Over/Under: 121.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
- Location: Brooklyn, N.Y.
This should be a really ugly game as George Washington (12-19, 15-16 ATS) takes on Fordham (8-22, 13-17 ATS) in Round 1 of the Atlantic 10 tournament. This matchup between two terrible teams is providing some value on the total.
Fordham has arguably the worst offense in the conference and, according to KenPom, the Rams boast sixth-worst offensive efficiency at 88.8. That number dipped to 85.2 during conference play.
Fordham’s poor offensive metrics are due in large part to the fact that the Rams can’t shoot. Fordham ranks 345th in eFG%, 348th in 2P%, 258th in 3P%, and 315th from the free-throw line. The Rams rank last in the A-10 in all of those metrics except for 3P%.
On top of all of those putrid offensive metrics, Fordham ranks 331st in tempo. Slow pace mixed with bad offense is the perfect recipe for an under.
Fordham does play well on the other side of the ball, with the 68th-best defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Rams also rank inside the top-100 defensively in eFG%, Turnover %, 3P%, and Steal %.
The Rams should provide a sturdy test for a George Washington offense that doesn’t boast any stand-out metrics. The Colonials also play at a slower pace, ranked 268th in the country.
It shouldn’t surprise you to hear that the Under is 19-10-1 in Fordham games and 20-10-1 when George Washington plays. Fordham swept the season series in a pair of low-scoring games (59-54, 63-52).
I think this game will look a lot like the first two meetings between these two schools. My model has the total number of points scored at 116.51, so I would play the under at 121 or better. — Brad Cunningham
The Pick: Under 121 or better