2018 Bahamas Bowl Betting Guide: Where Does FIU Turn Without Its QB vs. Toledo?

Dec 21, 2018 10:00 AM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports.

2018 Bahamas Bowl Betting Odds: Florida International-Toledo

  • Odds: Toledo -7
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Date: Friday, Dec. 21
  • Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.


The Bahamas Bowl spread took a sharp turn less than 24 hours before the game, when news broke that FIU quarterback James Morgan wouldn’t play because of an injury to his throwing arm.

That sent the line flying up in Toledo’s favor, and also dropped the total.

Market Moves for Toledo-FIU

By Danny Donahue

Since opening, 64% of bets and 69% of dollars have taken the points with FIU, which initially dropped this line to FIU +5, and even +4.5 at a few books. Then, on Thursday afternoon with the announcement that Morgan wouldn’t play, the line went to Toledo -7.

The total has been of interest for any weather-based bettors. With high wind speeds expected throughout the game, 71% of bets accounting for 98% of dollars have hit the under, moving this total down from 66.5 to 58.5. On Thursday, it dropped another 2.5 points to 56 with the injury news (see live betting data here).

Trends to Know for Bahamas Bowl

By Evan Abrams

In the fifth edition of the Bahamas Bowl at Thomas Robinson Stadium, weather is supposed to be beautiful and 80 degrees, but wind is projected to be about 20 MPH.

Since 2005, only six bowl games have been played with wind above 15 mph, and those games are 5-1 to the over, going over the total by 9.4 points per game. During the regular season, games with at least 15 mph winds go under about 57% of the time.

What Does FIU Do Without Morgan?

By Steve Petrella

FIU quarterback James Morgan was named Conference USA’s newcomer of the year, and he was the catalyst behind a revitalized FIU offense. Without him, where do the Panthers turn?

Morgan’s backup is redshirt junior¬†Christian Alexander, who has thrown 68 passes in four years with the program. He’s more adept as a runner, gaining 91 yards on 11 carries with two touchdowns this season.

There were rumblings that Morgan would miss the Bahamas Bowl, so it’s quite possible Alexander has been running with the first team through all of FIU’s bowl practices. Expect the Panthers to rely heavily on the run.

FIU Will Need its Run Game

By Stuckey