2018 College Football Bowl Projections After Week 7: New Year’s Six Elimination

Bowl projections during the first half of the college football season are a bit far-fetched. Because most bowls have such specific tie-ins to conference standings, we base things mostly on which teams we think will have better records in league play come the end of November.

But after Week 7, we have a clearer picture. Teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, and those we thought were serious contenders for the College Football Playoff and other New Year's Six bowls might not be, after all.

Here are The Action Network's college football bowl projections for 2018 after Week 7, plus the projected point spread for each game.

2018 College Football Bowl Projections, Week 7

College Football Playoff Projection

For all the chaos we got on Saturday, nothing changes among the top four. Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Clemson all remain unbeaten.

Georgia wasn't in the College Football Playoff in our projections last week, so the Bulldogs' loss to LSU doesn't change a whole lot. They still need to win out and beat (likely) Alabama in the SEC championship game.

You could make the argument that Michigan can hold a hypothetical spot right now, but since it needs to run the table and will be an underdog at Ohio State, we'll give the nod to the Buckeyes.

New Year's Six Bowl Projections

Penn State, Miami and Washington's chances of reaching a New Year's Six Bowl took big bits with conference losses Saturday and now each would need to run the table to finish in a high-enough position to get there.

The Huskies are in better shape because their loss was their first in Pac-12 play.

All Other Bowl Projections

The 33 other games. These will fluctuate greatly as conference standings shake out.

There are also a whole bunch of teams taking bids that can't be filled by other conferences. The bottom of the ACC, Big Ten and SEC are a mess and there won't be enough bowl-eligible teams to take all the spots allotted.

College Football Bowl Tie-Ins for 2018-19

College Football Playoff

• Cotton Bowl semifinal (Arlington, Texas)
• Orange Bowl semifinal (Miami)

New Year's Six

• Sugar (New Orleans): Big 12 vs. SEC
• Rose (Pasadena, Calif.): Big Ten vs. Pac-12
• Peach (Atlanta): At-large vs. at-large
• Fiesta (Glendale, Ariz.): At-large vs. at-large

The highest-ranked Group of 5 team will go to either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl, depending on geography.

Every Other Bowl

Notre Dame has ACC bowl ties, so if it doesn't reach a New Year's Six Bowl (it looks likely that it will), it will take an ACC spot.

BYU was supposed to be tied to the Poinsettia Bowl, but that no longer exists. But the Cougars do have a deal with ESPN that guarantees they'll play in a bowl if eligible.

• Citrus (Orlando): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
• Outback (Tampa): Big Ten vs. SEC
• Gator (Jacksonville): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
• Holiday (San Diego): Big Ten vs. Pac-12
• Liberty (Memphis): Big 12 vs. SEC
• Military (Annapolis): ACC vs. American
• Alamo (San Antonio): Big 12 vs. Pac-12
• Arizona (Tucson): Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
• Camping World (Orlando): Big 12 vs. ACC
• Sun (El Paso): ACC vs. Pac-12
• Belk (Charlotte): SEC vs. ACC
• Music City (Nashville): SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten
• Texas (Houston): Big 12 vs. SEC
• Pinstripe (New York City): Big Ten vs. ACC
• Independence (Shreveport, La.): SEC vs. ACC
• Cactus (Tempe): Big 12 vs. Pac-12
• Quick Lane (Detroit): Big Ten vs. ACC
• Heart of Dallas: Big Ten vs. Conference USA
• San Francisco: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
• Hawaii: Mountain West vs. Conference USA
• Dollar General (Mobile): MAC vs. Sun Belt
• Armed Forces (Fort Worth): Big 12 vs. American
• Birmingham: SEC vs. American
• Potato (Boise): Mountain West vs. MAC
• Bahamas: Conference USA vs. MAC
• Gasparilla (Tampa): American vs. Conference USA
• Frisco (Texas): American vs. at-large
• Boca Raton: American vs. Conference USA
• New Orleans: Sun Belt vs. Conference USA
• Cure (Orlando): American vs. Sun Belt
• Camellia (Montgomery, Ala.): Sun Belt vs. MAC
• Las Vegas: Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
• New Mexico (Albuquerque): Mountain West vs. Conference USA