2018 College Football Playoff Rankings: Breaking Down the Top 25
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jerry Jeudy, Travis Etienne and Greedy Williams
- We've got projections for the first 2018 College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings.
- Remember: Don't worry too much about where your team lands -- it will all play itself out on the field over the next month.
Ah, the first edition of the 2018 College Football Playoff rankings, when we yell and scream about a Top 25 that is completely incomplete.
It's like arguing about who is winning a race while the race is still going on. We'll get our winners soon enough.
Still, there's plenty to learn from the College Football Playoff committee's first Top 25.
2018 College Football Playoff Rankings
UPDATE: The committee released its top 10. Below this list are our projections.
- Alabama
- Clemson
- LSU
- Notre Dame
- Michigan
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Washington State
- Kentucky
- Ohio State
- Florida
- UCF
- West Virginia
- Penn State
- Utah
- Iowa
- Texas
- Mississippi State
- Syracuse
- Texas A&M
- NC State
- Boston College
- Fresno State
- Iowa State
- Virginia
Before the rankings were released, here was our projected top 25, along with each team's current national title odds.
2018 College Football Playoff Rankings Projections
The first 10 or so teams are still alive in the College Football Playoff race. Ten might even be a stretch. There are probably seven. No one would be surprised to see any of the top seven teams below get in, except maybe LSU, since a matchup with Alabama looms this weekend.
1. Alabama
National Title Odds: -230
Anyone want to make the case to not have Alabama at No. 1?
Clemson might have slightly better wins, but with the way the Tide have dominated, there's no way they don't take the top spot.
2. Clemson
National Title Odds: +375
The Tigers haven't always made it easy on themselves, but they're unbeaten, the offense is hitting its stride and they'll be a double-digit favorite in every remaining game.
3. LSU
National Title Odds: +4000
LSU will be at No. 3 because its body of work is better than any team's in the country.
The committee hasn't been afraid of ranking a one-loss team with an impressive résumé ahead of an unbeaten team in the past — like last season, when unbeaten Miami (No. 7) and Wisconsin (No. 8) teams were ranked behind one-loss Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma and TCU teams.
But the Tigers play Alabama this weekend, and a second loss will effectively eliminate them from the College Football Playoff. So who cares if they're at No. 3 right now? It will play itself out.
4. Notre Dame
National Title Odds: +600
If the Irish win out, they'll get in. They're at Northwestern, vs. Florida State, vs. Syracuse and at USC to close the season. Their toughest test is probably this weekend against the Wildcats.
5. Michigan
National Title Odds: +1200
Georgia and Michigan are pretty much the same team at this point: Both have one loss and need to win their respective conference championship to make the College Football Playoff.
You could have either at No. 5, but Michigan didn't get throttled in its loss to Notre Dame like Georgia did to LSU, so we'll go with the Wolverines.
6. Georgia
National Title Odds: +1150
Georgia doesn't have a ton of quality wins, but plays Kentucky and Auburn over the next two weeks.
7. Oklahoma
National Title Odds: +2000
As the de facto leader of a Power 5 conference with one loss, Oklahoma gets in the contender's tier at No. 7. The Sooners probably need some help — a Notre Dame loss, mainly — but they're still very much alive.
8. Kentucky
National Title Odds: +80000
This is incredible. Kentucky — Kentucky! — comes in at No. 8 in the first 2018 College Football Playoff rankings.
The committee is big into résumé, and right now the Wildcats have a good one with wins over Florida and Mississippi State and only an overtime loss to Texas A&M. They deserve to be in the top 10.
9. Ohio State
National Title Odds: +1000
Everyone is acting as if Ohio State's season is over, but the Buckeyes still have better national title odds than Michigan because they play the Wolverines at home.
Yeah, the loss to Purdue stings a lot. But if Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes are almost certainly in the College Football Playoff.
10. Washington State
National Title Odds: +5000
The Pac-12's only hope at a playoff spot, Washington State doesn't have an overly impressive résumé, but continues to win.
11. Florida
National Title Odds: +99999
There's no real scenario in which Florida makes the College Football Playoff, but that win over LSU gives it a bump ahead of two-loss Penn State because it's the best win any team in the country has right now.
12. West Virginia
National Title Odds: +10000
West Virginia doesn't have an impressive résumé, so it will slot in behind a handful of teams but it still has a reasonable path to the College Football Playoff if it wins out.
13. Penn State
National Title Odds: +50000
The Nittany Lions would need some serious help to reach the College Football Playoff, but they're a two-loss Power 5 team. They'll be placed ahead of a glut of teams.
14. Texas
National Title Odds: +27500
Because they have that signature win over Oklahoma, the Longhorns will get placed ahead of several other two-loss Power 5 teams that lack top-10 wins, such as Iowa and Utah.
15. Central Florida
National Title Odds: +6000
The UCF debate rages on. Last season, the Knights were No. 18 in the first set of College Football Playoff rankings.
They'll get a little bump this season based on past performance, but the strength of schedule just isn't there to jump UCF ahead of many two-loss Power 5 teams.
16. Iowa
National Title Odds: +100000
The Hawkeyes can still win the Big Ten West, giving them more of a path to the College Football Playoff than teams such as Florida or Penn State, but they don't have a ton of quality wins and they lost to Penn State.
17. Utah
National Title Odds: +100000
Utah is like Iowa but in the Pac-12, so the Utes are one spot back.
18. Mississippi State
National Title Odds: OFF
The committee has routinely put three-loss Power 5 teams with quality wins ahead of unbeaten or one-loss Group of 5 teams — such as 6-3 Iowa and Iowa State over 8-1 Memphis last season, or 5-3 Florida State over 8-0 Western Michigan in 2016.
19. Texas A&M
National Title Odds: OFF
I'm not sure how the committee views quality losses, but the Aggies have one quality win over Kentucky and narrow victories over South Carolina and Arkansas. Not overly impressive.
20. Houston
National Title Odds: +100000
At this point, we're splitting hairs.
The back end of the Top 25 has never mattered and isn't likely to matter much in 2018, because these teams are either Group of 5 programs or ones that have multiple losses. Those credentials will both pretty much disqualify you from the College Football Playoff.
21. Fresno State
National Title Odds: +100000
Like Houston, Fresno State is very much vying for the Group of 5's New Year's Six spot, but not a College Football Playoff berth or national title.
22. Boston College
National Title Odds: +999999
Boston College beating Miami last week is probably enough to get the Eagles in the Top 25.
23. Syracuse
National Title Odds: OFF
Give it up for the Orange. They have two losses (and almost beat Clemson), have already hit their win total and will likely make the College Football Playoff Top 25 for the first time.
24. Stanford
National Title Odds: OFF
The Cardinal have some good wins, and their losses were to good teams, so the committee will have mercy and put them at No. 24.
25. Virginia
National Title Odds: +999999
We're living in a world where Kentucky and Virginia could both be playing in their conference title games. UVA has two losses, but wins over Miami and Duke and a manageable schedule the rest of the way.
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