College Football Schedule, Week 6: Best Games to Watch Based on Vegas Data

Oct 06, 2018 6:46 AM EDT
  • Using four factors, we rank each Week 6 college football game on the schedule by how watchable it is.
  • Those factors are the spread, total, our power ratings and public betting data.
  • In the end, the model rates every game of the weekend by how interesting it is.

We get it. You’re an avid college football fan and you like spreading bets across the entire schedule of games.

But then you plop down on your couch with a beer at noon to start your Week 6 binge, and you have remote anxiety. Should you watch Texas-Oklahoma or Alabama-Arkansas? Or will the best game actually be between Pitt and Syracuse?

Thankfully, here at The Action Network we have a solution. With a wealth of Vegas data on our site, as well as proprietary metrics to measure how good teams are, we can put some data behind the games that should capture your attention. Remote anxiety, be gone.

Using four factors, we’ll rank each game on a watchability scale each week:

  1. The spread: A closer spread is better. Who cares about that 40-point blowout?
  2. The total: Maybe you’re a maniac and like watching 3-0 SEC slugfests, but let’s assume that high-scoring games are preferred.
  3. How good the teams are: Using our proprietary metric, we’ll give more weight to, ya know, the good teams.
  4. Public betting data: We have a ton of data on which teams the public is backing, so we’ll factor that in, too.

And there you have it. The Action Network weekly Watchability Ratings.

Week 6 College Football Schedule, Watchability Ratings

Let’s run through some of the top games and then I’ll post a table at the bottom with all of the games and where they rank:

1. Texas vs. Oklahoma (neutral field)

  • Oklahoma -7.5
  • Over/under: 60.5
  • 12 p.m. ET | FOX

Played at the Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, this game features one of college football’s greatest rivalries. Oklahoma boasts a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Kyler Murray (pictured above), but Texas has historically gotten the better of the Sooners in the betting market.

Per our betting preview, Texas is 9-3-1 against the spread vs. Oklahoma in this rivalry since 2005.


>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets


2. LSU at Florida

  • LSU -2.5
  • Over/under: 44.5
  • 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS

LSU is a tight road favorite of just 2.5 points (although we’re tracking sharp betting money on the Gators). This game does have a very low total of 44.5 (and it’s been moving down all week), but it features two teams high in our power rankings and is the most-bet game of the weekend.

Tune in Saturday afternoon and watch this defensive slugfest with high stakes.

3. Notre Dame at Virginia Tech

  • Notre Dame -7
  • Over/under: 55.5
  • 8 p.m. ET | ABC/WatchESPN

Notre Dame has a lot to lose in this game, as this could be its toughest test yet as it seeks to a perfect 12-0 season and berth in the College Football Playoff.

Even if the Irish win, it could be smart to take the points with the Hokies: Per John Ewing in our betting guide, ranked teams since 2005 coming off a top-10 win have been overvalued, going just 42% ATS.

4. Syracuse at Pittsburgh

  • Syracuse -3.5
  • Over/under: 58.5
  • 12:20 p.m. ET | ACC/WatchESPN

You might be surprised to see this game so high on the list. It’s here because of the interesting betting data: A ridiculous 84% of bets are currently on Syracuse, making them one of the most popular teams of the weekend.

Despite that, however, the line has moved in Pittsburgh’s favor. Know what that means? Sharp action, baby.

5. Auburn at Mississippi State

  • Auburn -3.5
  • Over/under: 43
  • 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2

This affair features one of the highest combined power ratings of the weekend, and Auburn is a slight road favorite. Mississippi State should be quite motivated after dropping each of its last two games, scoring a combined 13 points in those. Do the Bulldogs turn things around at home?


The Perfect Saturday Schedule

12 p.m. ET: Texas vs. Oklahoma (FOX), Syracuse at Pittsburgh (ACC/WatchESPN)

3:30 p.m. ET: LSU at Florida (CBS), Indiana at Ohio State (FOX)

Evening: Notre Dame at Virginia Tech (ABC/WatchESPN), Auburn at Mississippi State (ESPN2)

Late night: Utah at Stanford (ESPN), California at Arizona (FS1)


All Week 6 College Football Games

Credit:

Sep 29, 2018; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray (1) reacts after the game against the Baylor Bears at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears
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