2018 Hawaii Bowl Betting Guide: Can Hawaii’s Offensive Line Hold Up vs. Louisiana Tech?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: J’Mar Smith and Cole McDonald
2018 Hawaii Bowl Betting Odds: Louisiana Tech-Hawaii
- Odds: Hawaii -1
- Over/Under: 61
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 22
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.
The 2018 Hawaii Bowl won't be played on Christmas Eve this year. Instead, Hawaii will meet Louisiana Tech to wrap up an action-packed Saturday before a three-day lull in the bowl schedule.
Hawaii will bring its air-raid offense and porous defense to this game against a Louisiana Tech team with an opportunistic defense and offense that really sputtered down the stretch.
Odds Movement for Hawaii Bowl
By Danny Donahue
The public hasn’t made a clear play on this matchup, with each side seeing 50% of tickets. Sharper bettors, however, may be leaning toward Louisiana Tech, as the Bulldogs have drawn 70% of money and moved from +2 to +1.
As for the total, it’s jumped from 57.5 to 61 behind 76% of bets and 63% of dollars on the over.
Trends to Know for Hawaii-Louisiana Tech
By John Ewing
This is the fifth time since 2005 that Hawaii has played in the Hawaii Bowl. The Rainbow Warriors should enjoy home-field advantage, right? But in the previous four games, Hawaii went 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
By Stuckey
— Hawaii is 4-3 all-time in bowl games in Hawaii.
— Skip Holtz has won four straight bowls in the past four seasons.
— Teams playing a bowl in their home stadium are 39-28 ATS since 1980.
Hawaii O-Line Faces Tough Task
By Stuckey
Louisiana Tech's Jaylon Ferguson should absolutely dominate the Hawaii tackles. Ferguson leads FBS in sacks (15) and is second in tackles for loss (23.5).
Ferguson has 42.5 career sacks, which is only 1.5 behind the all-time record held by Terrell Suggs (Arizona State) and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones (Arkansas State). The future NFL defensive end decided he would not sit out the Hawaii Bowl, and I expect an absolutely dominant effort as he chases the all-time NCAA sacks record.
Louisiana Tech is one of 15 teams to average at least three sacks per game. Hawaii’s subpar offensive line gave up an average of 2.85 sacks per game, which ranked 110th in the country.
Louisiana Tech Defense Has the Edge
By Stuckey
These are two offenses that love to throw the ball. Louisiana Tech ranks 110th in standard downs run rate and Hawaii ranks 128th.
But it's Tech that should create a few disruptive plays on the defensive end. Not only does it rank in the top 10 in Adjusted Sack Rate, its secondary ranks in the top 10 in Havoc Rate. I anticipate a few turnovers created on the front and back ends of the La Tech defense against the pass-happy Hawaii offense.
On the flip side, while Hawaii does rank a respectable 39th in Adjusted Sack Rate, its secondary ranks 118th in Havoc Rate. I like Louisiana Tech, as I think its defense is built to make more game-changing plays in this battle of pass-happy offenses.
Good Defenses Owned Hawaii
By Steve Petrella
When Hawaii got off to its roaring start, we didn't know just how bad the defenses it played were. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 7.75 yards per play in their first three games, all against teams that finished the year ranked 115th or worse in S&P+ defense.
But when the defenses started to get better, Hawaii struggled. It averaged 5.24 yards per play and didn't top 23 points once in five straight midseason games against top-70 defenses, and lost four of those games. Those 5.24 ypp compared to 7.75 is the difference between Kansas State's and Alabama's offenses.
Louisiana Tech's defense ranks 47th.
Bet to Watch
By Collin Wilson
Hawaii was the hot storyline coming into the season, with an upset victory in Week 0 and Cole McDonald getting whispers of a Heisman campaign. The Rainbow Warriors rode that wave as long as possible until it finally played a team ranked in the top 75 in S&P+ and started to fall apart, as Steve mentioned.
Hawaii snapped a four-game losing streak to end the season with one-possession victories over UNLV and San Diego State. Louisiana Tech has had its fair share of bad results, losing three of four heading into the Hawaii Bowl.
Although both teams prefer to pass with standard and passing downs run rate outside the top 100, both teams tend to move the ball at a slower clip. Hawaii is 105th in adjusted pace while Louisiana Tech is 94th.
I'll be backing Louisiana Tech for a few key reasons. The Bulldogs are one of the least penalized teams in the nation and have protected the ball better than Hawaii on the season. Expect McDonald to get pressured and take some sacks as the Warriors offensive line is 81st in passing downs sack rate.
Louisiana Tech’s defensive front is 15th in sack rate with a defensive line havoc rate of 22nd. If McDonald can escape pressure, the Bulldogs are 11th in defensive back havoc.
Louisiana Tech has the better defense with a coach who knows how to prepare his players for a trip to the island. Hawaii’s terrible splits in field position should give the Bulldogs the extra edge needed for a victory.
Shop for the best number in the last college game before Christmas as the number floats around pk to Hawaii -1.
Collin's Pick: Louisiana Tech +1
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