2018 MAC Championship Betting Guide: Major Contrast in Styles for NIU-Buffalo

Northern Illinois-Buffalo Betting Odds, Pick

• Odds: Buffalo -3.5
• Over/Under: 51
• Time: 7 p.m. ET (Friday)
• TV: ESPN2

In July, NIU was listed as the favorite to win the MAC at 2-1 odds, while Buffalo was listed at 12-1. Fast forward four months, and it’s Buffalo that is favored over NIU to win the conference.

Buffalo won the first meeting between these schools back in 1968. But since then, it’s been all NIU, which has won 11 in a row between 1970 and 2017 — 10 of which came since 1999. Last year, NIU defeated the Bulls in Buffalo, 14-13, in a game that didn’t see a single point scored in the second half.

These two teams enter this game with contrasting styles and very different bodies of work. NIU played a much tougher non-conference schedule, traveling to BYU, Iowa and Florida State, plus a home game against Utah.

Buffalo played Delaware State, Rutgers, Army and Temple. As a result, the Bulls had the 126th-toughest schedule in the nation.

Could those tough games pay off for NIU here, and is the market perception a little inflated for Buffalo because of its cake schedule? Let's dive in.

Odds Moves for Buffalo-NIU

By PJ Walsh

Buffalo opened as a 4-point road favorite and is attracting 73% of tickets wagered on the spread. Despite bettors backing the Bulls, the line has settled in at -3.5 across the market.

In terms of sharp money, wiseguys have turned their attention to the over/under. After oddsmakers opened the number at 49, Sports Insights' Bet Signals triggered two Steam Moves on the over, explaining why the total has pushed up to 51.

Buffalo Can Neutralize NIU Pass Rush

By Stuckey

I think Buffalo can have more success in getting after the quarterback. Many will focus on defensive end Sutton Smith and a Northern Illinois defense that accumulated an NCAA-best 46 sacks in 2018.

However, Buffalo has allowed just eight total sacks all season (only Army and Air Force have allowed fewer) and ranks in the top 10 in Adjusted Sack Rate.

Buffalo's defensive front actually has the better matchup, also ranking in the top 15 in Adjusted Sack Rate. That should cause major problems for an NIU offensive line that ranks 109th in that same category — including 119th on Passing Downs.

Is the NIU Passing Game This Bad?

By Steve Petrella

It feels weird that in 2018, a team can win its division without any semblance of a passing attack. But has NIU's passing game really been this bad?

Yes. Yes it has. The Huskies' passing performances against Utah, Iowa, BYU and Florida State, all top 50 defenses, were on par with their efforts in MAC play. They would still rank bottom five nationally in yards per pass attempt if you only counted MAC games.

The difference has come on the ground. NIU gashed its conference opponents by running the ball, but really struggled against that brutal non-conference slate.

As Stuckey touches on below, Buffalo has an underrated defense, but its strengths lie in the secondary, not against the run, so NIU might have a slight edge.

Buffalo Has Quality Secondary

By Stuckey

The Buffalo defense allows only 6.4 yards per pass attempt (32nd nationally), while the anemic NIU offense averages just 5.0 yards per pass attempt (127th in country).

Also, opposing quarterbacks have completed only a touch over 50% of their passes against Buffalo this season — the third-lowest rate in all of college football.

The advanced metrics tell the same story. Per S&P+, Buffalo ranks No. 1 in the nation in Pass Efficiency defense, while Northern Illinois' offense ranks 128th.

The Bulls do struggle in regards to defending Pass Explosiveness (122nd), but NIU has one of the least-explosive passing attacks in FBS (129th). Do not expect Northern Illinois to get anything through the air against an underrated Buffalo pass defense.

Beware of the Elusive Blocked Kick

By Stuckey

Neither team has a particularly strong special teams unit, but I would watch out for a potential game-changing punt or field goal block by NIU. I know that sounds very random, but Buffalo has allowed an NCAA-high seven blocked kicks on the season and an NCAA-high three blocked punts.

It just so happens that NIU is one of only eight teams with five or more blocked kicks this season and one of nine teams with three or more blocked punts.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

Northern Illinois was one of my first plays on The Action Network app, taking +4 against a Buffalo team that might have been misleading the past couple of weeks.

Bulls head coach Lance Leipold made numerous comments over the last month about what his team has left in the tank. Star wide receiver Anthony Johnson has recovered from a midseason injury, but the passing game has not been on sync over the past month.

Quarterback Tyree Jackson has not thrown over 151 yards in each of the last three games, while taking zero sacks. The Bulls have relied upon the running game to blow out opponents as of late, but a quick scan of the Ohio box score shows what a team can do when you stop the Buffalo run.

Northern Illinois is 6th in rushing S&P+ defense and 28th in the nation at stopping explosive runs. If Buffalo plans to rely on the run at Ford Field, it could be a long night for the Bulls.

Although Northern Illinois is not the best in the MAC against the pass, the Huskies do have a battle-tested sack rate of sixth in the nation.

The big argument against betting NIU is how the Huskies will score points. It’s a fair question that comes with an ugly answer — long drives filled with three-yard rushing plays. Northern Illinois is 28th in opportunity rate and 16th in stuff rate across the offensive line, which means the Huskies can control the trenches in short rushing situations.

Buffalo’s defensive line is one of the worst in the MAC, with a rank of 117th in stuff rate. The NIU offense is not pretty, and most people without multiple televisions will turn on the Pac-12 Championship game, but expect a grind of a game with the Huskies covering.

Collin's Pick: Northern Illinois +3.5

Who Do You Trust More?

By Stuckey

I also agree that NIU has value here in a coin-flip game of contrasting styles, potentially as a result of NIU’s performance in its two-game losing streak coming into this week.

However, I wouldn’t put too much stock in those losses, as the Huskies already had clinched the division and were playing two teams with bowl motivation.

As I mentioned above, NIU shouldn’t get anything through the air and Buffalo shouldn’t get anything on the ground against an NIU defense that allows 2.6 yards per rush (No. 2 in nation).

This basically comes down to which unit you trust more — the Buffalo passing attack against an elite defense whose one weakness is in the secondary — or the NIU rushing attack, which will need to grind drives up and down the field against a Buffalo rush defense that allows 4.2 yards per rush.

It is worth noting that future NFL receiver Anthony Johnson had seven catches for 140 yards for Buffalo in their meeting last year. If quarterback Tyree Jackson can get time behind an offensive line that has protected him well all season, Buffalo should hit a few big plays.

However, this is a much different test against one of the most ferocious defenses in the country that ranks in the top 10 in sacks and tackles for loss (although it does help that star defensive end Josh Corcoran will miss the first half).

If Buffalo can build a lead, NIU will be in trouble, as it is not built to come from behind.

And on the flip side, if you look at Buffalo’s losses this year, they came against dominant rushing teams that pounded the ball down Buffalo’s throat.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

Northern Illinois enters the MAC Championship on a two-game losing streak. It is rare for a team to play for a conference title having lost at least two games prior.

Since 2005, only six other teams have entered championship weekend on a losing streak. Those teams went 4-2 straight up (SU) and 3-3 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

By Evan Abrams

Not only does Northern Illinois enter the MAC Championship on a two-game losing streak as John noted, but for the season, the Huskies actually have a negative point differential.

Since 2005, the Huskies will be the sixth team to play a conference championship with a negative point differential for the season, and those teams are 2-4 SU and 5-1 ATS.

But the only team with a spread below double-digits, Bowling Green (+5) in the MAC Championship in 2014 against Northern Illinois, lost 51-17.