Ohio State-Washington Betting Guide: Urban Meyer’s Rose Bowl Swan Song

Ohio State-Washington Betting Guide: Urban Meyer’s Rose Bowl Swan Song article feature image

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Browning and Urban Meyer

2019 Rose Bowl Betting Odds: Ohio State-Washington

  • Odds: Ohio State -6.5
  • Over/Under: 57.5
  • Date: Tuesday, Jan. 1
  • Location: Pasadena, Calif.
  • Time: 5 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC

>> All odds as of Monday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets

The 2018 Rose Bowl will be Urban Meyer’s last game as head coach of Ohio State. While the hype around the game will focus on Meyer, the Buckeyes will need to navigate a sturdy Washington defense to send Meyer into the sunset in style.

Can the Buckeyes cover the 6.5-point spread? Let’s dig in.

Betting Market

By Danny Donahue

Ohio State has been among the most popular bets in all of bowl season, attracting 82% of bettors and 77% of dollars. The overwhelming support has moved the line from Ohio State -5 to -6.5.

And while less than one-third of bets are behind the under, they’ve accounted for 47% of dollars on the total, moving the number down from 58.5 to 57.5 (see live betting data here).

Bowl Season Is Not A Popularity Contest

By John Ewing

This is the most lopsided bet game this bowl season. More than 80% of spread tickets are on Ohio State.

Since 2005, no bowl team has ever received 20% or less of bets, which Washington currently is. During that time, teams getting less than 30% of tickets have gone 36-21-1 ATS in bowl games.

Rose Bowl Trends

By Evan Abrams

— The under is 54-49 (52.4%) in games played in the Rose Bowl since 2005. However, over the last three season, the over is 14-7 in games played at the historic stadium.

— Since 2005, 15 bowl games have been played at the Rose Bowl and the over is 11-4 (73.3%), profiting bettors 6.8 units. That makes the Rose Bowl the most profitable stadium to the over in bowl season.

— Meyer enters the Rose Bowl with an 11-3 record straight-up and against the spread in bowl season.

Statistically Speaking

By Stuckey

Meyer has an almost unbelievable 42-15 (73.7%) ATS record when he has at least eight days to prepare for an opponent. He also owns a 22-1 straight-up (SU) record after a bye week, with the only loss coming in 2001. Silliness.

This matchup will feature a great passing offense against a great passing defense. Ohio State ranks in the top 10 for yards per pass attempt while Washington ranks in the top 10 of that same category on defense.

Washington ranks No. 1 in defending pass explosiveness, too. The Huskies have one of the best secondaries in the nation that is more than capable of containing a pass-heavy Ohio State offense that has struggled to run the ball this season (4.4 yards per rush, 66th in nation).

And while the Washington pass defense gets all the love (and rightfully so), the Huskies only gave up 3.5 yards per carry on the ground this season (22nd overall).

Who’s More Motivated?

By Stuckey

This is Meyer’s last game, so you can assume Ohio State will be fired up. But so will Washington. This is the Rose Bowl. Throw out the motivation and focus on the on-field matchup.

Bet to Watch

By Stuckey

I normally would stay far away from any Ohio State under, but I think the matchup is right here — and more importantly, the number is too high. Plus, Washington unders are my favorite unders, so why not bring in the New Year with a Huskies under in their season finale?

You might point to games against TCU and Michigan as reasons why one should never trust an Ohio State under, which is a fair point. However, the one primary weakness of both defenses is stopping passing explosiveness. Even Michigan’s elite defense ranked 69th in defending pass explosiveness, per S&P+.

Well, Washington’s elite secondary does not have that issue, as the Huskies’s defense ranks No. 1 in the nation in defending pass explosiveness. That’s huge against Heisman finalist Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeye offense.

On the other side of the ball, Washington does not possess the offense necessary to exploit Ohio State’s primary weakness: defending explosiveness, especially in the running game where the Buckeyes rank 125th nationally. I also think Ohio State can generate pressure on Jake Browning against an offensive line that ranks 92nd in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs.

I will close with three other factors to consider in favor of the under:

  • The Huskies are a snail, ranking 109th in Adjusted Pace.
  • Ohio State has one of the nation’s best punters in Drue Chrisman, who is a wizard when it comes to pinning teams deep. That will make it even tougher for the methodical Washington offense. There’s a reason why Ohio State has the second best average defensive field position.
  • This game will feature two unreliable kickers, so you could see a few drives end in missed field goals…or turnovers on downs.

Stuckey’s Pick: Under 57.5

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