BLACK FRIDAY -- 50% OFF
Start betting like a PRO

Wilson: The Luckiest and Unluckiest College Football Teams of 2019 By Second Order Win Total

Credit:

Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Alan Bowman

College football season is in the books. And to most gamblers, this is the signal it’s time to focus on college hoops, baseball win totals or even some tennis in Australia.

To me, it means the 2020 season has started and my power ratings need immediate adjustment.

The process for handling the Action Network power ratings in the postseason differs from in-season. A number of factors can change the outlook for a program throughout the offseason.

This time last year, LSU’s Joe Brady was in a NFL Playoff run, Jalen Hurts was still at Alabama and Kelly Bryant was new to the Missouri campus. While it is impossible to evaluate the impact of each news item, purging advanced statistics will give a gambler a head start.

The first set of power ratings in January are crafted with influence from program regression, turnover luck, departing production, coaching changes and second-order win total. These bullet points are quantifiable and can be used to reconstruct a power rating.

This article will focus solely on second-order win total, which compares the advanced statistics of a team to its true results. Second order wins essentially show what a team’s record would be if luck were even across the board.

If a team has a negative SOW value, there was a bit of luck involved. Any team with a high positive value immediately gets attention for a 2020 breakout.

Each game produces a post-game win expectancy. Tally a team’s total post-game win expectancy and compare to the actual win total to get a second-order value.

Those numbers have all been compiled below to identify the teams that truly earned their final grades.


Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Second-Order Win Total for 2019

Two Teams Down For 2020

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories