2021 College Football Bowl Projections for Week 8: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: The crowd at a Penn State football game.
College Football Bowl Projections for Week 8
Let’s cut to the chase: this week’s bowl projections have Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State in the College Football Playoff.
For that to happen, Alabama has to win out (beating 12-0 Georgia in SEC title game), Oklahoma has to win the Big 12 title and 12-1 Ohio State must win out and capture the Big Ten Championship.
Even if all that happens, the Buckeyes’ chances will increase significantly if Oregon suffers another loss.
The selection committee historically values head-to-head wins, so if Oregon and Ohio State both win their conferences with identical 12-1 records, the biggest unknown is whether they would give Oregon the edge because of its win at Ohio State or favor the Buckeyes because they would have faced more Top 25 opponents.
In the above scenario regarding Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State, I maintain that 13-0 Cincinnati would not be rated higher than any of those teams with one or fewer losses and will not be the first Group of Five team to make the playoff.
Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Georgia
Action Spread: Georgia -3.5
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia
Action Spread: Georgia – 6.5
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Action Spread: Alabama -4.5
New Year's Six Bowls
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky
Action Spread: Oklahoma State -0.5
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: Penn State vs. Oregon
Action Spread: Penn State -7
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: Michigan vs. Cincinnati*
Action Spread: Cincinnati -3.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Notre Dame vs. NC State
Action Spread: Notre Dame -1
Other Bowls
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Texas vs. Mississippi State
Action Spread: Mississippi State -6.5
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Action Spread: Ole Miss -0.5
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Action Spread: Texas A&M -5.5
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Central Michigan vs. Fresno State
Action Spread: Fresno State -11
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Auburn
Action Spread: Auburn -7.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Boston College vs. UCLA
Action Spread: UCLA -6
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Minnesota vs. Arkansas
Action Spread: Arkansas -5.5
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: North Carolina vs. Florida
Action Spread: Florida -4.5
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State
Action Spread: Arizona State -4
Valero Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Baylor vs. Utah
Action Spread: Utah -6.5
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Clemson vs. Iowa State
Action Spread: Iowa State -5.5
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Virginia vs. Purdue
Action Spread: Virginia -2
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. SMU
Action Spread: SMU -2.5
SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: Pitt vs. Oregon State
Action Spread: Pitt -7
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Maryland vs. TCU
Action Spread: TCU -2.5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Texas Tech vs. Tennessee
Action Spread: Tennessee -7
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Kansas State vs. Tulsa
Action Spread: Kansas State -7
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: LSU vs. UAB
Action Spread: LSU -9
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Louisville vs. Houston
Action Spread: Houston -0.5
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois
Action Spread: Western Kentucky -9
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: Western Michigan vs. Troy
Action Spread: Western Michigan -5
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Hawaii vs. Memphis
Action Spread: Memphis -4
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Appalachian State vs. San Jose State
Action Spread: Appalachian State -14
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: Air Force vs. Washington State
Action Spread: Air Force -4.5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Army vs. Nevada
Action Spread: Nevada -3.5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State
Action Spread: Boise State -11.5
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Charlotte vs. Utah State
Action Spread: Charlotte -1.5
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -11.5
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: USC vs. San Diego State
Action Spread: USC -8.5
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: BYU vs. Marshall
Action Spread: BYU -3
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: South Alabama vs. Colorado State
Action Spread: Colorado State -1.5
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Wyoming vs. UTEP
Action Spread: Wyoming -10.5
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech
Action Spread: Louisiana -16.5
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: UCF vs. Liberty
Action Spread: Liberty -2.5
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Ball State
Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -3
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.
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