Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Navy runs all over Air Force’s defense
Air Force 2018 Betting Odds
- To win the Mountain West: +5000
- To win the Mountain Division: +2000
- Win Total: 4.5 (over -135, under +105)
All lines as of Aug. 17. Always shop for the best line.
Air Force 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds
The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.1
Bet To Watch
Air Force Under 4.5 wins (+105)
There are programs that throw defense aside and rely on a dynamic offense to try to outscore opponents, then there’s Air Force.
College football is all about the explosive play, and Air Force ranked dead last in defending rushing and passing explosiveness in 2017. The Falcons allowed an FBS-worst 6.2 yards per carry. Elite rushing teams on its schedule will feast (FAU, Navy, San Diego State, etc.) if they can’t turn it around.
New defensive coordinator Brain Knorr comes in after spending the previous two years as a special teams coach at Arizona and Ohio State. This could be a very long year for the defense.
Offensively, Arion Worthman took Air Force a step back in passing-success rate in 2017. The backfield will have to replace Tim McVey’s seven touchdowns, but plenty of running backs and wide receivers from last year’s roster remain. Don’t worry too much about the offense.
With a new defensive coordinator who recently served as a special teams coach at two stops, it’s safe to say the Air Force defense will still be suspect. There has been no infusion of JUCO help, and the Falcons rank 103rd in returning defensive production.
Regardless of the 5.1 wins projection, this Air Force team has not upgraded at any position since last year’s defensive disaster. Take Under 4.5 wins (+105) and expect plenty of points each week.
What else you need to know about Air Force
Air Force is 6-1 ATS after a bye week since 2014. This applies to a visit at Utah State. Air Force won this game 38-35 in 2017, racking up 400 yards on the ground. Utah State loses two all-conference defensive backs and has a change at defensive coordinator. Look to back Air Force +7 or better on Sept. 22.