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Air Force-San Diego State Bet to Watch: Finding Value in the Over/Under

Oct 12, 2018 4:15 PM EDT

Air Force at San Diego State Betting Odds, Pick

  • Odds: San Diego State -10.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET, Friday
  • TV: CBSSN

Both of these teams come off big wins for their respective programs, as Air Force defeated fellow service academy Navy last week, while San Diego State pulled off a huge road upset over Boise State.

You could make an argument that both teams might come out a little flat after two big wins. Air Force has certainly done this in the past, going just 2-15 ATS (11.8%) in its last 17 games after facing either Army or Navy. However, Air Force could come out energized to stop a team that has beaten the Falcons seven straight times.

I ultimately think the spread looks spot on and have instead focused in on the over/under.


>> All odds as of 9 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


Key Matchup: San Diego State Rush Defense vs. Air Force

If you didn’t see what the Aztec defense did to Boise on the road last week, go check out the box score and focus on the yards-per-play summary. SDSU held Boise to just 229 yards on 80 plays for a staggering 2.86 yards per play. It was an absolutely dominant effort en route to a 19-13 win.

The San Diego State rush defense was even more impressive in that victory, holding Boise State running back Alex Mattison to just 66 yards on 25 carries. That wasn’t anything new for an Aztec defense that has shut down rushing offenses all season long.

In fact, San Diego State ranks second in the nation at a minuscule 1.96 yards per carry. And it’s not like the Aztecs haven’t faced a tough schedule, as they have played Arizona State, Stanford and Boise State so far. Per S&P+, SDSU ranks in the top 10 nationally in defending both rushing efficiency (third) and explosiveness (eighth).

That strength will come in handy against this Air Force option attack. Not surprisingly, the Falcons run the ball at a top-5 clip nationally on both Standard Downs and Passing Downs, per Football Study Hall. Do not expect the Air Force offense to do much of anything tonight against head coach Rocky Long’s bunch that has seen the option frequently both in and out of conference in recent years.

Bet to Watch for San Diego State-Air Force

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Credit:

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Air Force Falcons defensive back Kyle Floyd

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