Wilson: A Deep Dive Into South Point’s CFB Games of the Year

Credit:

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (13). Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The dominoes continue to fall in the college football futures market. Bookmaker Chris Andrews released his Week 1 numbers Monday, with the Game of the Year lines slated for Thursday morning.

It has become an annual event to see the first college numbers produced from the sharp Andrews and South Point. I already hopped on an opening week underdog with Miami in anticipation of South Point’s Week 1 releases. As I anticipated, Mr. Andrews has the Hurricanes listed at -3 in their opener against LSU.

Let’s take a look at the specific games scheduled for release by South Point by month. For reference, I will include my numbers, S&P+ and ESPN FPI spreads based on power ratings. I’ll also follow with a few relevant nuggets to note. Every chart will get updated with the South Point numbers upon release for ease of comparison.

(Note:  Home-field advantage differs by team per power rating.  I personally weight my home-field numbers using a 15-year against-the-spread sample.)

 


September Game of the Year Lines

Notes:

  • Sept. 15: Alabama hasn’t covered in Oxford since 2009.
  • Sept. 15: USC hits the road for a second consecutive week in a nonconference sandwich game against Texas, which will look to avenge a heartbreaking double-OT loss at Southern Cal last season.
  • Sept. 22:  Stanford projects as an underdog at Oregon. Bet Labs notes Stanford coach David Shaw owns an impressive 13-3 ATS record as an underdog. He’s also 14-5 ATS after a loss, which could come into play against UC Davis the week before, as the Trees host USC on Sept. 8.
  • Sept. 29:  Stanford on back-to-back travel in a nonconference game against a Notre Dame squad that should have extra motivation after a blowout loss to the Cardinal last season.

 


October Game of the Year Lines

Notes:

  • Oct. 6: Wisconsin has a bye week before hosting Nebraska, which lost to the Badgers at home by three touchdowns last season.
  • Oct. 6: The Red River Rivalry has been decided by a total of 22 points the last four seasons. Don’t be surprised if we see another close one in Dallas between Texas and Oklahoma.
  • Oct. 13: Oregon will come off a bye before its conference showdown with Washington, which will play its second of back-to-back road games. Major revenge spot for the Ducks, who lost 38-3 to the Huskies in 2017.
  • Oct. 20: Oregon hasn’t covered against Washington State since 2009.
  • Oct. 20: Since coach Dave Doeren took over at N.C. State in 2013, the Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS off a bye week.

 


November Game of the Year Lines

Notes:

  • Nov. 3: Penn State coach James Franklin is just 2-11-1 ATS after a straight-up loss with the Nittany Lions. This game is sandwiched between Iowa and Wisconsin.
  • Nov. 3: Northwestern has Notre Dame scheduled in between its two biggest Big Ten West games in Wisconsin and Iowa.
  • Nov. 3: Since 2010, Kansas State coach Bill Snyder is 18-8 ATS as a road underdog. However, this will also mark the second straight road game for K-State following a trip to Norman.

 


S&P+ via SBNation and FPI via ESPN

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