Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 7 college football projections

Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 7 college football projections article feature image

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week's previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.

If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 7:

DateAwayHomeCW Line
Oct 11South AlabamaTroyTROY -12.5
Oct 12Texas StateULLULL -11.5
Oct 13Washington StateCaliforniaCAL +18
Oct 13ClemsonSyracuseSYR +19.5
Oct 14UNLVAir ForceAFA -9.5
Oct 14ArkansasAlabamaBAMA -27.5
Oct 14UCLAArizonaARIZ +5.5
Oct 14WashingtonArizona St.ASU +17.5
Oct 14Coastal CarolinaArkansas St.ARST -16.5
Oct 14Eastern MichiganArmyARMY -6
Oct 14OhioBowling GreenBGSU +6.5
Oct 14Northern IllinoisBuffaloBUFF +6
Oct 14ToledoC. MichiganCMCH +6.5
Oct 14NevadaColorado St.CSUP -23
Oct 14Florida StateDukeDUKE +7
Oct 14TulaneFIUFIU +7
Oct 14Texas A&MFloridaFLA -5.5
Oct 14New MexicoFresno St.FRES +2.5
Oct 14MissouriGeorgiaUGA -25
Oct 14New Mexico StateGeorgia SouthernGASO +3
Oct 14San Jose StateHawaiiHAW -16.5
Oct 14Appalachian StateIdahoIDHO +11
Oct 14RutgersIllinoisILL -3
Oct 14MichiganIndianaIND +10.5
Oct 14KansasIowa St.ISU -18
Oct 14TCUKansas St.KSU +3
Oct 14Miami OhioKent St.KNT +16
Oct 14Boston CollegeLouisvilleLOU -22
Oct 14AuburnLSULSU +1.5
Oct 14Old DominionMarshallMRSH -14
Oct 14NorthwesternMarylandMD +6
Oct 14NavyMemphisMEM -1
Oct 14Georgia TechMiamiMIAMI -10.5
Oct 14Michigan StateMinnesotaMINN +2
Oct 14BYUMississippi St.MSST -17.5
Oct 14Ohio StateNebraskaNEB +19
Oct 14VirginiaNorth CarolinaUNC -2.5
Oct 14UTSANorth TexasUNT +1.5
Oct 14BaylorOklahoma St.OKST -19
Oct 14VanderbiltOle MissMISS -1.5
Oct 14ColoradoOregon St.ORST +12.5
Oct 14North Carolina StatePittsburghPITT +8.5
Oct 14Boise StateSan Diego St.SDSU -3.5
Oct 14CincinnatiSouth FloridaUSF -21
Oct 14UTEPSouthern MissUSM -19
Oct 14OregonStanfordSTAN -7.5
Oct 14UConnTempleTEM -12.5
Oct 14South CarolinaTennesseeTENN -4.5
Oct 14OklahomaTexasTEX +7.5
Oct 14HoustonTulsaTLSA +9.5
Oct 14Middle TennesseeUABUAB +6
Oct 14East CarolinaUCFUCF -28.5
Oct 14Georgia StateULMULM -6.5
Oct 14UtahUSCUSC -12.5
Oct 14WyomingUSUUSU -2
Oct 14Texas TechWest VirginiaWVU -7.5
Oct 14CharlotteW. KentuckyWKU -17.5
Oct 14AkronW. MichiganWMU -8.5
Oct 14PurdueWisconsinWISC -19
Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site

Notes

  • Syracuse starts a tough stretch of Clemson, Miami and Florida State in Week 7. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury that had him in a boot after the game. Dabo Swinney claims this won't affect his status for Week 7, but keep tabs on the Tigers signal caller.

  • Despite the status of the quarterback position for Iowa State, the Cyclones defeated the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman. For the Red River Rivalry, the projected point spread is -7.5. Oklahoma has not won this game by six or more points since 2012. Iowa State finds themselves in a hangover situation against Kansas.

Iowa State, a 31-point underdog, leads Oklahoma 38-31. 2:19 left in fourth quarter. Cyclones were +3,500 on the money-line @southpointlv.

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 7, 2017

  • Great buy, low sell high opportunity with Tulsa against Houston. The Golden Hurricanes had three tough weeks against option offenses. Not only did they lose straight up, the point spreads all moved seven or more points from the opener. With Tulsa +9.5 expected, Houston comes in after surviving SMU, who whipped them in total yards in Week 6.
  • I mentioned on the Degen and Juice Podcast that Ohio State would cover the 30.5 on the Terps and probably cover 40.5. Ohio State moves on to Lincoln, while Maryland should be +6 hosting another buy low candidate… Northwestern.
  • No Brent Stockstill, no problem. John Urzua had a monster day for Middle Tennessee State. Meanwhile, UAB is quietly winning straight up as double digit dogs and should be a dog here hosting the Blue Raiders. UAB has a top-30 defense for completion percentage and pass yards per attempt. Look to back the Blazers at anything over a touchdown.
  • Iowa goes on a bye week, so keep them in your thoughts for the Week 8 game with Northwestern. They beat Illinois but lost the yardage battle 446 to 441, and had the benefit of being plus two in the turnover department. Illinois should be -3 hosting Rutgers who comes off a bye week.
  • After allowing Texas A&M to get back into the game, Alabama should be uber focused for a visit from Arkansas. The Razorbacks are going through quite the crisis with not enough talent to keep star quarterback Austin Allen upright or catching his passes. Frustration has reached a peak with this Arkansas team from a player and fanbase standpoint. The projection is Alabama -27.5, when in actuality that should probably be the first half line.

  • Georgia will go on a bye week after hosting Missouri, with a projected spread of Bulldogs -25. UGA should be able to name their number, as Missouri's rush defense is outside of the top 80 in every single category.
  • I would be looking to take road Toledo this week against Central Michigan. The Chipps had a victory over Ohio while losing the total yardage battle. Central Michigan benefit from being plus four in turnovers against the Bobcats, making the final score very deceiving. The Rockets continue to play tough defense, keeping Eastern Michigan at 1-of-11 on third down conversions.
  • In #MACtion buy low, sell high, Bowling Green won at Miami Ohio as 16.5 point dogs. They didn't win the total yards in the box score and benefited from being plus one in net turnovers. They host a team that won the box score but lost the game, the Ohio Bobcats.
  • Keep your eyes on the West Virginia point spread projected at -7.5 against Texas Tech. The Mountaineers won the box score against TCU but fell because of turnovers. The Red Raiders roll into town on double travel duty after putting up 65 on Kansas.
  • I would love to back New Mexico State in Week 7 after their fourth quarter scare against Appalachian State. It looks like an easy 14-point win for Appalachian State in Week 6, but the Aggies outgained them 532 to 425 yards with a 6-to-3 turnover ratio. NMSU makes their third road trip in a row (Arkansas, Appalachian State) to Georgia Southern, who will be playing on extra rest.
  • Other teams that won the box score but didn't win the game: UTSA (469-458 in a loss to Southern Miss, at North Texas Week 7), SMU (544-463 in a loss to Houston), Missouri (568-486 to Kentucky, at Georgia Week 7), and Air Force (621 to 557 to Navy, host UNLV Week 7).

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