Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 7 college football projections

Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 7 college football projections article feature image

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.

If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 7:

Date Away Home CW Line
Oct 11 South Alabama Troy TROY -12.5
Oct 12 Texas State ULL ULL -11.5
Oct 13 Washington State California CAL +18
Oct 13 Clemson Syracuse SYR +19.5
Oct 14 UNLV Air Force AFA -9.5
Oct 14 Arkansas Alabama BAMA -27.5
Oct 14 UCLA Arizona ARIZ +5.5
Oct 14 Washington Arizona St. ASU +17.5
Oct 14 Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. ARST -16.5
Oct 14 Eastern Michigan Army ARMY -6
Oct 14 Ohio Bowling Green BGSU +6.5
Oct 14 Northern Illinois Buffalo BUFF +6
Oct 14 Toledo C. Michigan CMCH +6.5
Oct 14 Nevada Colorado St. CSUP -23
Oct 14 Florida State Duke DUKE +7
Oct 14 Tulane FIU FIU +7
Oct 14 Texas A&M Florida FLA -5.5
Oct 14 New Mexico Fresno St. FRES +2.5
Oct 14 Missouri Georgia UGA -25
Oct 14 New Mexico State Georgia Southern GASO +3
Oct 14 San Jose State Hawaii HAW -16.5
Oct 14 Appalachian State Idaho IDHO +11
Oct 14 Rutgers Illinois ILL -3
Oct 14 Michigan Indiana IND +10.5
Oct 14 Kansas Iowa St. ISU -18
Oct 14 TCU Kansas St. KSU +3
Oct 14 Miami Ohio Kent St. KNT +16
Oct 14 Boston College Louisville LOU -22
Oct 14 Auburn LSU LSU +1.5
Oct 14 Old Dominion Marshall MRSH -14
Oct 14 Northwestern Maryland MD +6
Oct 14 Navy Memphis MEM -1
Oct 14 Georgia Tech Miami MIAMI -10.5
Oct 14 Michigan State Minnesota MINN +2
Oct 14 BYU Mississippi St. MSST -17.5
Oct 14 Ohio State Nebraska NEB +19
Oct 14 Virginia North Carolina UNC -2.5
Oct 14 UTSA North Texas UNT +1.5
Oct 14 Baylor Oklahoma St. OKST -19
Oct 14 Vanderbilt Ole Miss MISS -1.5
Oct 14 Colorado Oregon St. ORST +12.5
Oct 14 North Carolina State Pittsburgh PITT +8.5
Oct 14 Boise State San Diego St. SDSU -3.5
Oct 14 Cincinnati South Florida USF -21
Oct 14 UTEP Southern Miss USM -19
Oct 14 Oregon Stanford STAN -7.5
Oct 14 UConn Temple TEM -12.5
Oct 14 South Carolina Tennessee TENN -4.5
Oct 14 Oklahoma Texas TEX +7.5
Oct 14 Houston Tulsa TLSA +9.5
Oct 14 Middle Tennessee UAB UAB +6
Oct 14 East Carolina UCF UCF -28.5
Oct 14 Georgia State ULM ULM -6.5
Oct 14 Utah USC USC -12.5
Oct 14 Wyoming USU USU -2
Oct 14 Texas Tech West Virginia WVU -7.5
Oct 14 Charlotte W. Kentucky WKU -17.5
Oct 14 Akron W. Michigan WMU -8.5
Oct 14 Purdue Wisconsin WISC -19
Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site


  • Syracuse starts a tough stretch of Clemson, Miami and Florida State in Week 7. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury that had him in a boot after the game. Dabo Swinney claims this won’t affect his status for Week 7, but keep tabs on the Tigers signal caller.

  • Despite the status of the quarterback position for Iowa State, the Cyclones defeated the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman. For the Red River Rivalry, the projected point spread is -7.5. Oklahoma has not won this game by six or more points since 2012. Iowa State finds themselves in a hangover situation against Kansas.


  • Great buy, low sell high opportunity with Tulsa against Houston. The Golden Hurricanes had three tough weeks against option offenses. Not only did they lose straight up, the point spreads all moved seven or more points from the opener. With Tulsa +9.5 expected, Houston comes in after surviving SMU, who whipped them in total yards in Week 6.
  • I mentioned on the Degen and Juice Podcast that Ohio State would cover the 30.5 on the Terps and probably cover 40.5. Ohio State moves on to Lincoln, while Maryland should be +6 hosting another buy low candidate… Northwestern.
  • No Brent Stockstill, no problem. John Urzua had a monster day for Middle Tennessee State. Meanwhile, UAB is quietly winning straight up as double digit dogs and should be a dog here hosting the Blue Raiders. UAB has a top-30 defense for completion percentage and pass yards per attempt. Look to back the Blazers at anything over a touchdown.
  • Iowa goes on a bye week, so keep them in your thoughts for the Week 8 game with Northwestern. They beat Illinois but lost the yardage battle 446 to 441, and had the benefit of being plus two in the turnover department. Illinois should be -3 hosting Rutgers who comes off a bye week.
  • After allowing Texas A&M to get back into the game, Alabama should be uber focused for a visit from Arkansas. The Razorbacks are going through quite the crisis with not enough talent to keep star quarterback Austin Allen upright or catching his passes. Frustration has reached a peak with this Arkansas team from a player and fanbase standpoint. The projection is Alabama -27.5, when in actuality that should probably be the first half line.

  • Georgia will go on a bye week after hosting Missouri, with a projected spread of Bulldogs -25. UGA should be able to name their number, as Missouri’s rush defense is outside of the top 80 in every single category.
  • I would be looking to take road Toledo this week against Central Michigan. The Chipps had a victory over Ohio while losing the total yardage battle. Central Michigan benefit from being plus four in turnovers against the Bobcats, making the final score very deceiving. The Rockets continue to play tough defense, keeping Eastern Michigan at 1-of-11 on third down conversions.
  • In #MACtion buy low, sell high, Bowling Green won at Miami Ohio as 16.5 point dogs. They didn’t win the total yards in the box score and benefited from being plus one in net turnovers. They host a team that won the box score but lost the game, the Ohio Bobcats.
  • Keep your eyes on the West Virginia point spread projected at -7.5 against Texas Tech. The Mountaineers won the box score against TCU but fell because of turnovers. The Red Raiders roll into town on double travel duty after putting up 65 on Kansas.
  • I would love to back New Mexico State in Week 7 after their fourth quarter scare against Appalachian State. It looks like an easy 14-point win for Appalachian State in Week 6, but the Aggies outgained them 532 to 425 yards with a 6-to-3 turnover ratio. NMSU makes their third road trip in a row (Arkansas, Appalachian State) to Georgia Southern, who will be playing on extra rest.
  • Other teams that won the box score but didn’t win the game: UTSA (469-458 in a loss to Southern Miss, at North Texas Week 7), SMU (544-463 in a loss to Houston), Missouri (568-486 to Kentucky, at Georgia Week 7), and Air Force (621 to 557 to Navy, host UNLV Week 7).


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