Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.
If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 7:
|Oct 11||South Alabama||Troy||TROY -12.5|
|Oct 12||Texas State||ULL||ULL -11.5|
|Oct 13||Washington State||California||CAL +18|
|Oct 13||Clemson||Syracuse||SYR +19.5|
|Oct 14||UNLV||Air Force||AFA -9.5|
|Oct 14||Arkansas||Alabama||BAMA -27.5|
|Oct 14||UCLA||Arizona||ARIZ +5.5|
|Oct 14||Washington||Arizona St.||ASU +17.5|
|Oct 14||Coastal Carolina||Arkansas St.||ARST -16.5|
|Oct 14||Eastern Michigan||Army||ARMY -6|
|Oct 14||Ohio||Bowling Green||BGSU +6.5|
|Oct 14||Northern Illinois||Buffalo||BUFF +6|
|Oct 14||Toledo||C. Michigan||CMCH +6.5|
|Oct 14||Nevada||Colorado St.||CSUP -23|
|Oct 14||Florida State||Duke||DUKE +7|
|Oct 14||Tulane||FIU||FIU +7|
|Oct 14||Texas A&M||Florida||FLA -5.5|
|Oct 14||New Mexico||Fresno St.||FRES +2.5|
|Oct 14||Missouri||Georgia||UGA -25|
|Oct 14||New Mexico State||Georgia Southern||GASO +3|
|Oct 14||San Jose State||Hawaii||HAW -16.5|
|Oct 14||Appalachian State||Idaho||IDHO +11|
|Oct 14||Rutgers||Illinois||ILL -3|
|Oct 14||Michigan||Indiana||IND +10.5|
|Oct 14||Kansas||Iowa St.||ISU -18|
|Oct 14||TCU||Kansas St.||KSU +3|
|Oct 14||Miami Ohio||Kent St.||KNT +16|
|Oct 14||Boston College||Louisville||LOU -22|
|Oct 14||Auburn||LSU||LSU +1.5|
|Oct 14||Old Dominion||Marshall||MRSH -14|
|Oct 14||Northwestern||Maryland||MD +6|
|Oct 14||Navy||Memphis||MEM -1|
|Oct 14||Georgia Tech||Miami||MIAMI -10.5|
|Oct 14||Michigan State||Minnesota||MINN +2|
|Oct 14||BYU||Mississippi St.||MSST -17.5|
|Oct 14||Ohio State||Nebraska||NEB +19|
|Oct 14||Virginia||North Carolina||UNC -2.5|
|Oct 14||UTSA||North Texas||UNT +1.5|
|Oct 14||Baylor||Oklahoma St.||OKST -19|
|Oct 14||Vanderbilt||Ole Miss||MISS -1.5|
|Oct 14||Colorado||Oregon St.||ORST +12.5|
|Oct 14||North Carolina State||Pittsburgh||PITT +8.5|
|Oct 14||Boise State||San Diego St.||SDSU -3.5|
|Oct 14||Cincinnati||South Florida||USF -21|
|Oct 14||UTEP||Southern Miss||USM -19|
|Oct 14||Oregon||Stanford||STAN -7.5|
|Oct 14||UConn||Temple||TEM -12.5|
|Oct 14||South Carolina||Tennessee||TENN -4.5|
|Oct 14||Oklahoma||Texas||TEX +7.5|
|Oct 14||Houston||Tulsa||TLSA +9.5|
|Oct 14||Middle Tennessee||UAB||UAB +6|
|Oct 14||East Carolina||UCF||UCF -28.5|
|Oct 14||Georgia State||ULM||ULM -6.5|
|Oct 14||Utah||USC||USC -12.5|
|Oct 14||Wyoming||USU||USU -2|
|Oct 14||Texas Tech||West Virginia||WVU -7.5|
|Oct 14||Charlotte||W. Kentucky||WKU -17.5|
|Oct 14||Akron||W. Michigan||WMU -8.5|
|Oct 14||Purdue||Wisconsin||WISC -19|
|Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site|
- Syracuse starts a tough stretch of Clemson, Miami and Florida State in Week 7. Clemson QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury that had him in a boot after the game. Dabo Swinney claims this won’t affect his status for Week 7, but keep tabs on the Tigers signal caller.
- Despite the status of the quarterback position for Iowa State, the Cyclones defeated the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman. For the Red River Rivalry, the projected point spread is -7.5. Oklahoma has not won this game by six or more points since 2012. Iowa State finds themselves in a hangover situation against Kansas.
Iowa State, a 31-point underdog, leads Oklahoma 38-31. 2:19 left in fourth quarter. Cyclones were +3,500 on the money-line @southpointlv.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 7, 2017
- Great buy, low sell high opportunity with Tulsa against Houston. The Golden Hurricanes had three tough weeks against option offenses. Not only did they lose straight up, the point spreads all moved seven or more points from the opener. With Tulsa +9.5 expected, Houston comes in after surviving SMU, who whipped them in total yards in Week 6.
- I mentioned on the Degen and Juice Podcast that Ohio State would cover the 30.5 on the Terps and probably cover 40.5. Ohio State moves on to Lincoln, while Maryland should be +6 hosting another buy low candidate… Northwestern.
- No Brent Stockstill, no problem. John Urzua had a monster day for Middle Tennessee State. Meanwhile, UAB is quietly winning straight up as double digit dogs and should be a dog here hosting the Blue Raiders. UAB has a top-30 defense for completion percentage and pass yards per attempt. Look to back the Blazers at anything over a touchdown.
- Iowa goes on a bye week, so keep them in your thoughts for the Week 8 game with Northwestern. They beat Illinois but lost the yardage battle 446 to 441, and had the benefit of being plus two in the turnover department. Illinois should be -3 hosting Rutgers who comes off a bye week.
- After allowing Texas A&M to get back into the game, Alabama should be uber focused for a visit from Arkansas. The Razorbacks are going through quite the crisis with not enough talent to keep star quarterback Austin Allen upright or catching his passes. Frustration has reached a peak with this Arkansas team from a player and fanbase standpoint. The projection is Alabama -27.5, when in actuality that should probably be the first half line.
- Georgia will go on a bye week after hosting Missouri, with a projected spread of Bulldogs -25. UGA should be able to name their number, as Missouri’s rush defense is outside of the top 80 in every single category.
- I would be looking to take road Toledo this week against Central Michigan. The Chipps had a victory over Ohio while losing the total yardage battle. Central Michigan benefit from being plus four in turnovers against the Bobcats, making the final score very deceiving. The Rockets continue to play tough defense, keeping Eastern Michigan at 1-of-11 on third down conversions.
- In #MACtion buy low, sell high, Bowling Green won at Miami Ohio as 16.5 point dogs. They didn’t win the total yards in the box score and benefited from being plus one in net turnovers. They host a team that won the box score but lost the game, the Ohio Bobcats.
- Keep your eyes on the West Virginia point spread projected at -7.5 against Texas Tech. The Mountaineers won the box score against TCU but fell because of turnovers. The Red Raiders roll into town on double travel duty after putting up 65 on Kansas.
- I would love to back New Mexico State in Week 7 after their fourth quarter scare against Appalachian State. It looks like an easy 14-point win for Appalachian State in Week 6, but the Aggies outgained them 532 to 425 yards with a 6-to-3 turnover ratio. NMSU makes their third road trip in a row (Arkansas, Appalachian State) to Georgia Southern, who will be playing on extra rest.
- Other teams that won the box score but didn’t win the game: UTSA (469-458 in a loss to Southern Miss, at North Texas Week 7), SMU (544-463 in a loss to Houston), Missouri (568-486 to Kentucky, at Georgia Week 7), and Air Force (621 to 557 to Navy, host UNLV Week 7).
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