Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 5 CFB Projections

Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 5 CFB Projections article feature image

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.

If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 5:

Date Away Home CW Line
Sep 28 Texas Iowa St. ISU +9.5
Sep 29 Miami Duke DUKE +2.5
Sep 29 Nebraska Illinois ILL +5
Sep 29 BYU USU USU +7.5
Sep 29 USC Washington St. WSU +6.5
Sep 30 Ole Miss Alabama BAMA -32
Sep 30 New Mexico St. Arkansas ARK -14.5
Sep 30 UTEP Army ARMY -22.5
Sep 30 Mississippi St. Auburn AUB -14
Sep 30 Central Michigan Boston College BC -7
Sep 30 Akron Bowling Green BGSU -0.5
Sep 30 Marshall Cincinnati CIN -3.5
Sep 30 South Florida East Carolina ECU +19
Sep 30 Charlotte FIU FIU -8.5
Sep 30 Vanderbilt Florida FLA -10
Sep 30 Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic FAU +8.5
Sep 30 Nevada Fresno St. FRES -2.5
Sep 30 Memphis Georgia St. GST +18.5
Sep 30 North Carolina Georgia Tech GT -9
Sep 30 Colorado St. Hawaii HAW +12
Sep 30 Baylor Kansas St. KSU -13
Sep 30 Buffalo Kent St. KNT +5.5
Sep 30 Eastern Michigan Kentucky UK -15.5
Sep 30 South Alabama LA Tech LT -17
Sep 30 Troy LSU LSU -22
Sep 30 Iowa Michigan St. MSU -3.5
Sep 30 Maryland Minnesota MINN -13.5
Sep 30 Air Force New Mexico UNM +2.5
Sep 30 Syracuse NC State NCST -13
Sep 30 Miami Ohio Notre Dame ND -21
Sep 30 California Oregon ORE -11.5
Sep 30 Washington Oregon St. ORST +21
Sep 30 Indiana Penn St. PSU -17
Sep 30 Rice Pittsburgh PITT -19
Sep 30 Ohio St. Rutgers RUTG +30
Sep 30 Northern Illinois San Diego St. SDSU -13
Sep 30 UConn SMU SMU -11.5
Sep 30 North Texas Southern Miss USM -11
Sep 30 Arizona St. Stanford STAN -20
Sep 30 Houston Temple TEM +15
Sep 30 Georgia Tennessee TENN +0.5
Sep 30 South Carolina Texas A&M TA&M -3.5
Sep 30 Oklahoma St. Texas Tech TTU +8
Sep 30 Navy Tulsa TLSA -0.5
Sep 30 Colorado UCLA UCLA -6.5
Sep 30 Coastal Carolina ULM ULM -4
Sep 30 Ohio UMass MASS +8
Sep 30 San Jose St. UNLV UNLV -8.5
Sep 30 Clemson Virginia Tech VT +5.5
Sep 30 Florida St. Wake Forest WF +12
Sep 30 Ball St. W. Michigan WMU -7.5
Sep 30 Texas St. Wyoming WYO -17
Sep 30 Northwestern Wisconsin WISC -13
Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site


  • Duke and Miami kick off Friday where the Blue Devils should be short home dogs. There is a major difference in time of possession with these two teams; Duke is third in the nation, Miami 123rd. The Hurricanes have Florida State on deck.

  • It’s a short week for USC on back-to-back road duties to face Washington State. USC has been sloppy of late, ranking 105th in penalties and allowing plenty of scores through the air. Wazzu is No. 1 in the nation in passing TDs.

  • It doesn’t get any more automatic than an 11 a.m. local kick in Fayetteville. Arkansas is coming off a dramatic overtime loss and is in a situational spot against non-conference New Mexico State before double SEC travel to South Carolina and Alabama. The projected spread is NMSU +14.5, and the Aggies have played above expectations so far. New Mexico State has been top 25 in red zone scoring, passing TDs and opponents third down conversion percentage.

  • Auburn gets a Mississippi State team that was throttled in Athens. It doesn’t get any easier in Week 5, as War Eagle is No. 1 in the nation in yards per play against.

  • Minnesota comes off a bye week ranked fifth in total defense and second in time of possession. That isn’t good for a Maryland Terrapins team that will be starting its third string quarterback in this contest.

  • Hangover city happens at North Carolina State this week. Syracuse is one of the most experienced teams in the country and has started to turn that into easy covers. The Wolfpack comes off a huge victory on Florida State’s field and shouldn’t be up for this fast paced Dino Babers offense.

  • Coastal Carolina just took a terrible loss as a three-point underdog to FCS Western Illinois. ULM is projected -4, but there isn’t a spread in the world I would be looking to back Coastal.

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