Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 5 CFB Projections
Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.
If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 5:
|Sep 28||Texas||Iowa St.||ISU +9.5|
|Sep 29||Miami||Duke||DUKE +2.5|
|Sep 29||Nebraska||Illinois||ILL +5|
|Sep 29||BYU||USU||USU +7.5|
|Sep 29||USC||Washington St.||WSU +6.5|
|Sep 30||Ole Miss||Alabama||BAMA -32|
|Sep 30||New Mexico St.||Arkansas||ARK -14.5|
|Sep 30||UTEP||Army||ARMY -22.5|
|Sep 30||Mississippi St.||Auburn||AUB -14|
|Sep 30||Central Michigan||Boston College||BC -7|
|Sep 30||Akron||Bowling Green||BGSU -0.5|
|Sep 30||Marshall||Cincinnati||CIN -3.5|
|Sep 30||South Florida||East Carolina||ECU +19|
|Sep 30||Charlotte||FIU||FIU -8.5|
|Sep 30||Vanderbilt||Florida||FLA -10|
|Sep 30||Middle Tennessee||Florida Atlantic||FAU +8.5|
|Sep 30||Nevada||Fresno St.||FRES -2.5|
|Sep 30||Memphis||Georgia St.||GST +18.5|
|Sep 30||North Carolina||Georgia Tech||GT -9|
|Sep 30||Colorado St.||Hawaii||HAW +12|
|Sep 30||Baylor||Kansas St.||KSU -13|
|Sep 30||Buffalo||Kent St.||KNT +5.5|
|Sep 30||Eastern Michigan||Kentucky||UK -15.5|
|Sep 30||South Alabama||LA Tech||LT -17|
|Sep 30||Troy||LSU||LSU -22|
|Sep 30||Iowa||Michigan St.||MSU -3.5|
|Sep 30||Maryland||Minnesota||MINN -13.5|
|Sep 30||Air Force||New Mexico||UNM +2.5|
|Sep 30||Syracuse||NC State||NCST -13|
|Sep 30||Miami Ohio||Notre Dame||ND -21|
|Sep 30||California||Oregon||ORE -11.5|
|Sep 30||Washington||Oregon St.||ORST +21|
|Sep 30||Indiana||Penn St.||PSU -17|
|Sep 30||Rice||Pittsburgh||PITT -19|
|Sep 30||Ohio St.||Rutgers||RUTG +30|
|Sep 30||Northern Illinois||San Diego St.||SDSU -13|
|Sep 30||UConn||SMU||SMU -11.5|
|Sep 30||North Texas||Southern Miss||USM -11|
|Sep 30||Arizona St.||Stanford||STAN -20|
|Sep 30||Houston||Temple||TEM +15|
|Sep 30||Georgia||Tennessee||TENN +0.5|
|Sep 30||South Carolina||Texas A&M||TA&M -3.5|
|Sep 30||Oklahoma St.||Texas Tech||TTU +8|
|Sep 30||Navy||Tulsa||TLSA -0.5|
|Sep 30||Colorado||UCLA||UCLA -6.5|
|Sep 30||Coastal Carolina||ULM||ULM -4|
|Sep 30||Ohio||UMass||MASS +8|
|Sep 30||San Jose St.||UNLV||UNLV -8.5|
|Sep 30||Clemson||Virginia Tech||VT +5.5|
|Sep 30||Florida St.||Wake Forest||WF +12|
|Sep 30||Ball St.||W. Michigan||WMU -7.5|
|Sep 30||Texas St.||Wyoming||WYO -17|
|Sep 30||Northwestern||Wisconsin||WISC -13|
|Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site|
Duke and Miami kick off Friday where the Blue Devils should be short home dogs. There is a major difference in time of possession with these two teams; Duke is third in the nation, Miami 123rd. The Hurricanes have Florida State on deck.
It’s a short week for USC on back-to-back road duties to face Washington State. USC has been sloppy of late, ranking 105th in penalties and allowing plenty of scores through the air. Wazzu is No. 1 in the nation in passing TDs.
It doesn’t get any more automatic than an 11 a.m. local kick in Fayetteville. Arkansas is coming off a dramatic overtime loss and is in a situational spot against non-conference New Mexico State before double SEC travel to South Carolina and Alabama. The projected spread is NMSU +14.5, and the Aggies have played above expectations so far. New Mexico State has been top 25 in red zone scoring, passing TDs and opponents third down conversion percentage.
Auburn gets a Mississippi State team that was throttled in Athens. It doesn’t get any easier in Week 5, as War Eagle is No. 1 in the nation in yards per play against.
Minnesota comes off a bye week ranked fifth in total defense and second in time of possession. That isn’t good for a Maryland Terrapins team that will be starting its third string quarterback in this contest.
Hangover city happens at North Carolina State this week. Syracuse is one of the most experienced teams in the country and has started to turn that into easy covers. The Wolfpack comes off a huge victory on Florida State’s field and shouldn’t be up for this fast paced Dino Babers offense.
Coastal Carolina just took a terrible loss as a three-point underdog to FCS Western Illinois. ULM is projected -4, but there isn’t a spread in the world I would be looking to back Coastal.