Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 5 CFB Projections

Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 5 CFB Projections article feature image
Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week's previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.

If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 5:

DateAway HomeCW Line
Sep 28TexasIowa St.ISU +9.5
Sep 29MiamiDukeDUKE +2.5
Sep 29NebraskaIllinoisILL +5
Sep 29BYUUSUUSU +7.5
Sep 29USCWashington St.WSU +6.5
Sep 30Ole MissAlabamaBAMA -32
Sep 30New Mexico St.ArkansasARK -14.5
Sep 30UTEPArmyARMY -22.5
Sep 30Mississippi St.AuburnAUB -14
Sep 30Central MichiganBoston CollegeBC -7
Sep 30AkronBowling GreenBGSU -0.5
Sep 30MarshallCincinnatiCIN -3.5
Sep 30South FloridaEast CarolinaECU +19
Sep 30CharlotteFIUFIU -8.5
Sep 30VanderbiltFloridaFLA -10
Sep 30Middle TennesseeFlorida AtlanticFAU +8.5
Sep 30NevadaFresno St.FRES -2.5
Sep 30MemphisGeorgia St.GST +18.5
Sep 30North CarolinaGeorgia TechGT -9
Sep 30Colorado St.HawaiiHAW +12
Sep 30BaylorKansas St.KSU -13
Sep 30BuffaloKent St.KNT +5.5
Sep 30Eastern MichiganKentuckyUK -15.5
Sep 30South AlabamaLA TechLT -17
Sep 30TroyLSULSU -22
Sep 30IowaMichigan St.MSU -3.5
Sep 30MarylandMinnesotaMINN -13.5
Sep 30Air ForceNew MexicoUNM +2.5
Sep 30SyracuseNC StateNCST -13
Sep 30Miami OhioNotre DameND -21
Sep 30CaliforniaOregonORE -11.5
Sep 30WashingtonOregon St.ORST +21
Sep 30IndianaPenn St.PSU -17
Sep 30RicePittsburghPITT -19
Sep 30Ohio St.RutgersRUTG +30
Sep 30Northern IllinoisSan Diego St.SDSU -13
Sep 30UConnSMUSMU -11.5
Sep 30North TexasSouthern MissUSM -11
Sep 30Arizona St.StanfordSTAN -20
Sep 30HoustonTempleTEM +15
Sep 30GeorgiaTennesseeTENN +0.5
Sep 30South CarolinaTexas A&MTA&M -3.5
Sep 30Oklahoma St.Texas TechTTU +8
Sep 30NavyTulsaTLSA -0.5
Sep 30ColoradoUCLAUCLA -6.5
Sep 30Coastal CarolinaULMULM -4
Sep 30OhioUMassMASS +8
Sep 30San Jose St.UNLVUNLV -8.5
Sep 30ClemsonVirginia TechVT +5.5
Sep 30Florida St.Wake ForestWF +12
Sep 30Ball St.W. MichiganWMU -7.5
Sep 30Texas St.WyomingWYO -17
Sep 30NorthwesternWisconsinWISC -13
Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site

Notes

  • Duke and Miami kick off Friday where the Blue Devils should be short home dogs. There is a major difference in time of possession with these two teams; Duke is third in the nation, Miami 123rd. The Hurricanes have Florida State on deck.
  • It's a short week for USC on back-to-back road duties to face Washington State. USC has been sloppy of late, ranking 105th in penalties and allowing plenty of scores through the air. Wazzu is No. 1 in the nation in passing TDs.
  • It doesn't get any more automatic than an 11 a.m. local kick in Fayetteville. Arkansas is coming off a dramatic overtime loss and is in a situational spot against non-conference New Mexico State before double SEC travel to South Carolina and Alabama. The projected spread is NMSU +14.5, and the Aggies have played above expectations so far. New Mexico State has been top 25 in red zone scoring, passing TDs and opponents third down conversion percentage.
  • Auburn gets a Mississippi State team that was throttled in Athens. It doesn't get any easier in Week 5, as War Eagle is No. 1 in the nation in yards per play against.
  • Minnesota comes off a bye week ranked fifth in total defense and second in time of possession. That isn't good for a Maryland Terrapins team that will be starting its third string quarterback in this contest.
  • Hangover city happens at North Carolina State this week. Syracuse is one of the most experienced teams in the country and has started to turn that into easy covers. The Wolfpack comes off a huge victory on Florida State's field and shouldn't be up for this fast paced Dino Babers offense.
  • Coastal Carolina just took a terrible loss as a three-point underdog to FCS Western Illinois. ULM is projected -4, but there isn't a spread in the world I would be looking to back Coastal.


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