Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 10 college football projections
Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.
If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 10:
|Oct 31||Bowling Green||Kent St.||KNT +2|
|Oct 31||Miami Ohio||Ohio||OHIO -8.5|
|Nov 1||Central Michigan||W. Michigan||WMU -7|
|Nov 2||Ball St.||E. Michigan||EMU -18.5|
|Nov 2||Navy||Temple||TEM +7.5|
|Nov 2||Northern Illinois||Toledo||TOL -10.5|
|Nov 2||Idaho||Troy||TROY -17|
|Nov 3||Memphis||Tulsa||TLSA +14|
|Nov 3||UCLA||Utah||UTAH -6|
|Nov 4||Army||Air Force||AFA -3.5|
|Nov 4||LSU||Alabama||BAMA -19|
|Nov 4||Colorado||Arizona St.||ASU -2.5|
|Nov 4||Coastal Carolina||Arkansas||ARK -22.5|
|Nov 4||Nevada||Boise St.||BSU -23.5|
|Nov 4||Oregon St.||California||CAL -4.5|
|Nov 4||UTSA||FIU||FIU +6.5|
|Nov 4||Marshall||Florida Atlantic||FAU -5.5|
|Nov 4||Syracuse||Florida St.||FSU -6.5|
|Nov 4||BYU||Fresno St.||FRES -12|
|Nov 4||South Carolina||Georgia||UGA -23.5|
|Nov 4||Georgia St.||Georgia Southern||GASO +6.5|
|Nov 4||Wisconsin||Indiana||IND +10.5|
|Nov 4||Ohio St.||Iowa||IUPA +18|
|Nov 4||Baylor||Kansas||KU +11|
|Nov 4||Ole Miss||Kentucky||UK -1|
|Nov 4||North Texas||LA Tech||LT -4|
|Nov 4||Virginia Tech||Miami||MIAMI -2|
|Nov 4||Minnesota||Michigan||MICH -15.5|
|Nov 4||Penn St.||Michigan St.||MSU +11|
|Nov 4||UTEP||Middle Tenn.||MTSU -17|
|Nov 4||UMass||Mississippi St.||MSST -25.5|
|Nov 4||Florida||Missouri||MIZZ +4.5|
|Nov 4||Northwestern||Nebraska||NEB -0.5|
|Nov 4||USU||New Mexico||UNM -5|
|Nov 4||Clemson||NC State||NCST +6.5|
|Nov 4||Wake Forest||Notre Dame||ND -14.5|
|Nov 4||Oklahoma||Oklahoma St.||OKST -2.5|
|Nov 4||Charlotte||Old Dominion||ODU -7|
|Nov 4||Illinois||Purdue||PUR -13|
|Nov 4||Maryland||Rutgers||RUTG +2.5|
|Nov 4||San Diego St.||San Jose St.||SJSU +18|
|Nov 4||UCF||SMU||SMU +13.5|
|Nov 4||ULL||South Alabama||USA -6|
|Nov 4||Texas||TCU||TCU -8.5|
|Nov 4||Southern Miss||Tennessee||TENN -3|
|Nov 4||Auburn||Texas A&M||TA&M +11|
|Nov 4||New Mexico St.||Texas St.||TXST +11.5|
|Nov 4||Kansas St.||Texas Tech||TTU -2.5|
|Nov 4||Cincinnati||Tulane||TUL -7.5|
|Nov 4||Rice||UAB||UAB -9|
|Nov 4||South Florida||UConn||CONN +24|
|Nov 4||Appalachian St.||ULM||ULM +7.5|
|Nov 4||Hawaii||UNLV||UNLV -3.5|
|Nov 4||Arizona||USC||USC -7.5|
|Nov 4||Western Kentucky||Vanderbilt||VAN -10|
|Nov 4||Georgia Tech||Virginia||UVA +7.5|
|Nov 4||Oregon||Washington||WASH -16|
|Nov 4||Stanford||Washington St.||WSU +2|
|Nov 4||Iowa St.||West Virginia||WVU -2.5|
|Nov 4||Colorado St.||Wyoming||WYO +6.5|
|Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site|
The loser of the Ball State and Eastern Michigan game is officially knocked out of bowl season. The difference between these two teams is that Ball State has lost five straight by large margins, while EMU has lost six straight by a combined 23 points.
The MAC West will should be decided when Northern Illinois visits Toledo. Last year was Toledo’s first straight up win in seven games against NIU.
Both off a bye week, LSU visits Alabama with one of the bigger point spreads in recent memory for this rivalry. The game has ended with a margin higher than 17 only twice since 2004.
Oregon State comes off a deflating loss to Stanford. The Beavers are officially eliminated from Bowl season. California has had a great year under Justin Wilcox, but must win two of three to make a bowl. Expect a max effort from the Bears as a short favorite.
Syracuse comes off a bye week and has yet to win a game on the road this year. Florida State sits at 2-5 and may be in desperation mode to try and salvage the season to make a bowl game. The Seminoles have overlook to Week 11 against Clemson.
Ohio State had a miraculous comeback to beat Penn State by one point, and should be on hangover alert at Iowa. Keep an eye on the motivation for the Buckeyes in Kinnick with Sparty on deck to potentially wrap up the Big Ten East.
Virginia Tech will make a visit to Miami in Week 10. I have had this game circled for quite awhile with the number of fraud box scores Miami has been a part of. The winner of this game will represent the Coastal division in the ACC Championship Game.
In a similar scheduling sandwich spot in 2016, Mississippi State needed some second half heroics to beat UMass by 12 points. The Minutemen come in on a two-game winning streak and should catch Cowbell in a lookahead spot to Alabama.
Notre Dame is marked for overlook with a Week 11 trip to Miami. Wake Forest should be able to take full advantage with an inflated spread against an Irish team with a national title mindset.
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