Week 10 college football futures betting watch: Playoff ranking shakeup
The College Football Playoff selection committee reveals its Top 25 every Tuesday until Conference Championships. The Action Network will bring you the latest CFP rankings along with power ratings, current futures odds and some chatter about the paths of the potential teams involved throughout the remainder of the season.
Updated Odds – November 7th
|23||North Carolina State||-16.5|
|Legend: No Odds|
Georgia stayed at No. 1 after a two-score home win against South Carolina. Since the Bulldogs have already clinched the SEC East, a loss this weekend to Auburn would not impede their path to the SEC Championship game. Speaking of War Eagle, they must win all of their remaining games to have a shot at the playoff. If they do run the table, the selection committee will have a hard time leaving the two-loss SEC champion out, as Auburn will need to beat Alabama and Georgia twice over their next four games. We should learn more about just how good the Crimson Tide is this weekend in their biggest test of the year so far against Mississippi State in StarkVegas. There is an unlikely scenario for Cowbell to win the SEC with two losses, which requires them to win out, starting with Alabama this week. We can get more into that if they actually pull off the upset this weekend, as that would certainly be fifth gear for Team Chaos fans.
Pending a complete meltdown, Miami and Clemson will meet in the ACC Championship Game to determine which team the ACC will send to the playoff. The Canes get a visit from Notre Dame this weekend, but I don’t think the outcome will affect the national title hopes of the ACC champion. In regards to the Irish, they must win out for playoff consideration. If Notre Dame survives this week, a home game against Navy and a road trip to Stanford still remain.
USC wrapped up the Pac-12 South with a victory over Arizona. The Trojans can book their tickets for Levi’s Stadium since they own the tiebreaker over both the Wildcats and Sun Devils. I expect USC to get some CFP consideration as a possible two-loss conference champion. The committee looks at the quality of your losses, and you could do a lot worse than dropping road games at Washington State and Notre Dame.
Washington visits Stanford to decide the North on Friday night. The Apple Cup looms at the end of November, and a loss by the Huskies this week could set them up to play spoiler against their in-state rival Washington State.
Wisconsin may be the Big Ten’s only chance at sending a team to the CFP. Even if Wisconsin suffers a loss to Iowa, Michigan or Minnesota, the Badgers will still advance to the Big Ten Championship for at least shot at the playoff; an undefeated Wisconsin team would obviously have a much stronger case.
I’m not even sure where to start with the Big Ten West. Michigan State currently holds the leader torch, but we should expect even more chaos with how this division has played out so far this year. Michigan, suddenly back in the conversation in the West, has the toughest path with Wisconsin and Ohio State remaining. The Wolverines really need Penn State to lose another game, which looks unlikely, in order to have any real shot. The Buckeyes have a chance to get back in control with a victory over the Spartans this weekend. Penn State should win out out, but they will need a lot of help to win the division, since they lose the tiebreaker to both Michigan State and Ohio State.
Boomer!! Oklahoma currently holds the inside track to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game. They host the only other one-loss team in the conference this weekend, TCU. The loser of that game falls back into a pack of two-loss teams. Oklahoma State may only have two losses on the season, but those are both tie-breaking losses to Oklahoma and TCU. Oklahoma winning out might be the only realistic shot the Big 12 has at getting a team into the College Football Playoff.
Group of Five
The CFP selection committee is sure to start rewarding Central Florida for staying undefeated. It’s hard to envision them making the playoff in any circumstance unless all Power Five conferences cannibalize themselves to create all two- or three-loss champions. UCF did not cover against SMU, but they escaped with a win against a tough team on the road. Games against South Florida and an AAC Championship game (Memphis/SMU) appear to be the only hurdles left for the Knights. If you are holding a UCF future as a member of #teamchaos, you still have an outside shot.
Week 11 Add: USC 100-1
There has been plenty of chatter about this being the year that a two-loss team makes the CFP. From the current list, this includes Auburn, USC, Oklahoma State, Ohio State and a handful of others. The committee inspects losses closer than anything, and that is where I think USC stands out above any other team. With losses to two teams in the playoff rankings (Washington State and Notre Dame), USC has the chance to beat a one-loss Washington team to further build their case for entry into the playoff. The Trojans are in a good position to win out with their soft remaining schedule and a bye week before the Pac-12 Championship. The remaining two-loss teams that could win their conference championships will not have the quality losses USC has as of this moment. Fight On!
Week 7: Virginia Tech 100-1
Week 8: Wisconsin 25-1
Week 9: Georgia 12-1
Week 10: Clemson 13-1
Week 11: USC 100-1
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