Big 12 Championship Game Odds: Oklahoma Opens as Favorite Over Baylor

Big 12 Championship Odds: Oklahoma vs. Baylor

• Odds: Oklahoma -9.5
• Over/Under: 62.5
• Time: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.

Oklahoma is a 9-point favorite over Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game at PointsBet.

This line has moved in Baylor's favor since their last meeting, when the Bears closed as 10.5-point home underdogs and lost 34-31. That means the market has moved these teams four points closer when factoring in 2.5 points for home-field advantage.

Our power ratings make Oklahoma a 7-point favorite.

Oklahoma's Statistical Profile

• Power Rating: 7
• ATS Record: 5-7
• Over/Under Record: 5-6-1
• Off. Yards Per Play: 8.36 (1st)
• Def. Yards Per Play: 5.33 (42nd)

What Oklahoma Does Well: This offense doesn't get the credit that the previous two Sooners offenses did, but its 8.36 yards per play is actually better than the 2017 Baker Mayfield-led team.

The Sooners are particularly dynamic in the run game with quarterback Jalen Hurts under center. They rank top 15 in both running and passing success rate and explosiveness.

Where Oklahoma Needs Work: Opposite Baylor, the Oklahoma defense sells out to stop the run (10th in success rate) but can get gashed for big plays (129th) in explosiveness.

Overall, the defense has been better in 2019, but there are still plenty of holes.

Baylor's Statistical Profile

• Power Rating: 16
• ATS Record: 8-4
• Over/Under Record: 6-6
• Off. Yards Per Play: 6.56 (16th)
• Def. Yards Per Play: 4.77 (18th)

What Baylor Does Well: Baylor holds the biggest statistical mismatch in this game with its big-play running ability vs. Oklahoma's tendency to give those up. The Bears averaged 4.9 yards per carry in their last meeting with the Sooners, but only ran the ball 23 times.

Where Baylor Needs Work: The Bears employ a bend-don't-break defense, which has worked well so far this year. But it's always a scary thought against an offense like Oklahoma.

Baylor's defense ranks 97th in passing success rate against, but No. 13 in passing explosiveness. The Bears are happy to concede underneath, but refuse to get beaten for chunk plays. They'll need to be a little more opportunistic against Oklahoma.