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Boise State-Boston College Betting Guide: Wind Plummets Total in First Responder Bowl

Dec 26, 2018 9:29 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brett Rypien and AJ Dillon

2018 First Responder Bowl Betting Odds: Boise State-Boston College

  • Odds: Boise State -2.5
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Date: Wednesday, Dec. 26
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.


Boise State fell just short of the Mountain West title and gets a post-Christmas date against Boston College.

The Eagles have missed star running back AJ Dillon for much of the second half of this season, and hope to welcome him back against the Broncos’ stout run defense.

Odds Movement for Boise State-Boston College

By Steve Petrella

Pinnacle opened Boise State -3.5 in early-December and bettors immediately moved that line down to -3. It continued to -2.5 in middle of the month and even fell as far as -2, but has since settled back to -2.5.

The total plummeted on Christmas Eve due to poor impending weather, dropping all the way from 56.5 to 50.5 at most books across the market.

Weather Playing a Role in Line Moves

By Steve Petrella

This game is expected to have 20+ mph winds and rain throughout the afternoon. That’s dropped the total five points in the last two days.

Games with wind of at least 20 mph are 66-39-3 (62.9%) to the under since 2005.

Dillon Injury Looms Large

By Steve Petrella

AJ Dillon is one of the nation’s best running backs. He ran for 1,108 yards and 10 scores and fuels BC’s rushing attack.

Dillon has been playing with an ankle injury since early October, and hasn’t been the same since. The Eagles are hopeful he’ll both play and be at 100% Wednesday, which could be a game changer. They’ll also have quarterback Anthony Brown back to full health after he suffered an abdominal injury against Clemson in mid-November.

Boise State is missing several depth pieces to injury and academic issues, including its fourth-leading receiver and third-leading running back.

Trends to Know for First Responder Bowl

By John Ewing

No. 25 Boise State is the favorite. Since 2005, Top 25 teams favored in bowl games have gone 84-103-2 (44.9%) against the spread (ATS).

By Evan Abrams

Boston College is the lone team this bowl season to enter its game losing at least three consecutive games both straight-up (SU) and ATS.

Since 2005, teams that enter bowl season on at least a 3-game SU and ATS losing streak are 8-5-1 ATS, but they’ve covered the spread by 5.9 points per game.

Third Downs Will Make the Difference

By Stuckey

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