Boston College-Boise State Odds: Analyzing Huge Christmas Day Line Movement

Christmas Day is for the kids … and the NBA. Most people are off work and spending time with family, and sports fans have a loaded basketball slate to distract them from annoying uncles and kids wired on stocking candy and battery overload.

The high-profile NBA schedule also affords plenty of betting opportunities, especially for the most casual of sports bettors.

But remember, just because professional hoops dominates the day, doesn't mean there aren't other sports available for betting.

In fact, while most bettors were distracted by presents and LeBron taking on the Warriors, the over/under for Wednesday's First Responder Bowl between Boston College and Boise State took a nose dive yesterday, and the weather forecast is to blame.

Oddsmakers opened the Boston College-Boise State total at 55 on Dec. 3 and as of 8 a.m. on Christmas, the number sat at 55.5. However, with less than 20 hours until kickoff, bettors took advantage of a nasty Wednesday weather forecast for Dallas, Texas, the site of the First Responder Bowl.

Steady 19-20 mph winds are expected throughout the game, with rain expected to pick up as it progresses.

According to our Bet Labs data, college football games played in double-digit winds have gone under 54% of the time since 2005. When those breezes reach 15 mph, unders are 286-215-9 (57.1%) over that span.

With such difficult conditions expected, the over/under plummeted throughout Christmas Day, bottoming out at 50 around 7:42 p.m. ET before correcting to 50.5, and eventually 51, at 11:21 p.m. ET.

The forecast continued to affect this line into Wednesday morning as well, with the total dropping to 49.5 — the current over/under — at 11:12 a.m. ET.

At the time of writing, 52% of bets on the total have taken the over, while 67% of dollars wagered are on the opposite side, indicating that the majority of money wagered got ahead of this weather forecast and helped drive the over/under to the current number.