Clemson 2019 Betting Guide: Can You Find Worthwhile Futures With Tigers’ Value So High?
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Travis Ettiene and Trevor Lawrence
Clemson’s 2019 Betting Odds
- Odds to Win National Title: +225
- To Win ACC: -500
- To Win ACC Atlantic: N/A
- Win Total: 11.5
Clemson Schedule, Projected Spreads
What to Like About Clemson
The Clemson offense returns as much talent in 2019 as the Clemson defense did in 2018. Which is a scary thought for opposing ACC defensive coordinators.
My money is down on Trevor Lawrence to win the Heisman, but that wouldn’t be possible without running back Travis Etienne and receiving targets Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. The Tigers are loaded at the skill positions.
Clemson’s offense ranks 26th in returning production, with losses at left tackle and center on the offensive line. The Tigers have reloaded through recruiting, with plenty of offensive lineman signed through the past two years with at least a 0.9 rating from 247sports.
The coaching staff has remained intact on both sides of the ball. Team continuity should be there from opener with Georgia Tech.
Clemson finished top 15 in passing and rushing efficiency on offense and should only improve. It would be a shock if the Tigers lose any game on their schedule if they stay healthy.
What Could Cause Problems
Clemson is far from a slam dunk to win another national title, despite being favored. Quarterback depth could be a concern with Chase Brice and Taisun Phommachanh penciled to be the backups to Lawerence. Although the offensive line will reload, losing a left tackle and center is cause for concern.
The defense ranks 100th in returning production, losing 11 of the top 13 tacklers that played in the front 7. Attacking the Clemson defense in short range may be the best plan for teams like Georgia Tech, Texas A&M and Syracuse.
But the Tigers have finished 11th or better in defensive S&P+ for each of the last five years. Don’t expect a huge drop.
One other area of concern? Special teams.
Clemson finished 2018 with a special teams S&P+ rank of 95th. Kicker B.T. Potter is back along with starters at punter, punt return and kickoff return, pending Amari Rodgers health. Special teams is coached by Danny Pearman who has been at Clemson since 2009. After ranking 50th in 2016, Clemson has turned in special teams S&P+ ranks of 85th, 114th and 95th.
Is Clemson in a tricky spot against an improving Texas A&M team in Week 2?
These head coaches have faced off every year since Jimbo Fisher took the Florida State head job in 2010. In that time, Fisher only lost to Dabo Swinney by more than 10 points once, a few weeks before Fisher departed for Texas A&M and had clearly checked out.
Florida State beat Clemson in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014. With the exception of 2017, the rivalry has been exceptionally close. A&M defensive coordinator Mike Elko will get another chance against the offensive coordinator duo of Tony Elliott and Jeff Scott. Elko has plenty of experience scheming for Clemson after last year and a previous position at Wake Forest.
As explosive and talented Clemson is, this is the biggest game on the schedule against a coaching staff that is the most familiar with the Tigers scheme. And that team is getting 17.5 points.
Bets to Watch
A win total of 11.5 leaves no room for a single bad Saturday. The Action Network power ratings suggest a win total of 11.9, but the better value may come in other futures.
As mentioned before, Trevor Lawrence to win the Heisman is my favorite bet for the award. As Clemson’s schedule gets easier in November, Alabama faces off against top 20 defenses in LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn.
Texas A&M +17.5 in current Game of the Year lines may have value. Although the number is around our projections, this was the same number for last year’s game in College Station that almost ended in an Aggies straight-up victory. Kellen Mond exposed Clemson’s secondary with big play after big play.
If you want to take Clemson to win the ACC at -500, you’re better off creating an open parlay with four spots and taking the Tigers on the moneyline in their four toughest conference games. The same could be said about a playoff birth at similar odds.
The price you need for a Clemson national title future is 3-1 or higher. That number represents a parlay of making the playoff at -500, plus two potential pick’em games against Alabama and/or Georgia.
Anything short of 3-1 is a pass. For bettors that are desperate to get action on Clemson regardless of price, there are shops that give you the ability to parlay futures.