Friday College Football Betting: Odds, Analysis for Memphis-SMU, Boise State-New Mexico

Friday College Football Betting: Odds, Analysis for Memphis-SMU, Boise State-New Mexico article feature image
Credit:

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Darrell Henderson

Memphis at SMU Betting Odds

  • Odds: Memphis -7
  • Over/Under: 73.5
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets


Memphis Rushing Attack Should Thrive

By Collin Wilson

According to the The Action Network power ratings there is value here at any line better than Memphis -10. We have the the game at Memphis -12, while S&P+ has Memphis -11.

Opponents that have beaten the Tigers have been able to limit an outstanding rush attack that ranks sixth in S&P+, ranking first in rush explosiveness. That can be attributed to running back Darrell Henderson, who averages an amazing 9.2 yards per carry.

SMU’s defense is 48th in rush explosiveness with an overall S&P+ rank of 75th against the rush. This game should have plenty of points scored, but Memphis ranks third offensively in finishing drives.

The Tigers should score on every trip into SMU territory, which should be enough to get a Memphis ticket to the window.

SMU Steadily Improving

By Steve Petrella

Saying SMU got blown out in its first six games is almost an understatement. The Mustangs had a postgame win expectancy of more than 15% in just one game — FCS Houston Baptist.

But the schedule featured games against Michigan, UCF, TCU and North Texas.

Since that gauntlet and a bye week, SMU is 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), and all those wins have been earned. The Mustangs postgame win expectancy was greater than 88% in each win, and a loss to 9-1 Cincinnati was a coin flip.

Key Trend for Memphis-SMU

By John Ewing

SMU has won consecutive games but is a 9-point underdog at home. Since 2005, teams on a winning streak of at least two games listed as underdogs of seven or more points at home have gone 101-80-2 (56%) ATS.

Boise State at New Mexico

  • Odds: Boise State -20
  • Over/Under: 62.5
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS Sports Network

By Collin Wilson

It’s a tough situational spot for back Boise State, which is off an underdog upset of Fresno State. The Broncos have Utah State next week to determine the Mountain West Mountain division, which could create an overlook.

But New Mexico is a tough team to back even with 20 points. New Mexico has lost five straight games with an S&P+ rank of 101st.

The Lobos rank outside the top 100 in total offense, total defense, yards per play, opponent yards per play, and opponent red zone scoring percentage.

If you can stomach that, consider New Mexico has covered six of the last seven games in this series, although it has only won once in the past nine tries.

It’s New Mexico or nothing in this game, but wait until some possible Boise steam before kick to secure the Lobos +21 if you’re brave enough.

New Mexico Getting Blown Out by Good Teams

By Steve Petrella

New Mexico has been a double-digit underdog in four straight games, and has covered just one. The Lobos defense has been shredded for 43 points per game. Three of those games came against S&P+ top 40 teams, which Boise falls into.

The good news for New Mexico is that it may be due for some positive regression, while Boise could see some negative regression to end the season.

The Lobos have one fewer win than they should based on statistical performance, according to Football Outsiders, while Boise has 1.4 more wins than it should.

New Mexico also has a big special teams edge, which could help get it to the window.

Why I’m Backing New Mexico

By Stuckey

If a team comes out flat with a lack of focus for a football game, it can really show with sloppy special teams play. And Boise is certainly at risk for both tonight.

The Broncos are clearly in a poor situational spot tonight, traveling for a road game against a bad New Mexico team in between a huge win over Fresno State and a showdown for the division against Utah State next week. And they have horrid special teams, which S&P+ ranks as 118th in the country.

To summarize how bad Boise has performed on special teams, it ranks dead last in the country in net punting (31.91), has had two punts blocked and kicker Haden Hogarth has only made 8 of 13 field goals.

On the flip side, New Mexico has an excellent special teams unit, ranking fifth in S&P+. The Lobos have the No. 2 kick return defense (14.89 yards on average) and the No. 21 punt return unit (13.67 yards on average). They really just do everything well in that regard, although they don’t really kick much with their freshman kicker who is 6-6 on field goal tries but has missed five extra points.

I expect New Mexico to win the hidden yardage battle, which could make all the difference if this spread gets to +21, in which case I will bet New Mexico.

Key Trend for Boise State-New Mexico

By John Ewing

No. 25 Boise State is a 20-point favorite at New Mexico. Since 2005, ranked teams from the Group of 5 have gone 115-100-6 (54%) ATS when favored by more than two touchdowns against a conference opponent.

When the games on the road, like it is for the Broncos, they have gone 48-30-1 (62%) ATS.

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